***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 14.6 17.8 -0.5 40.3 42.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.5 14.4 17.8 -0.5 39.3 41.6 14.0 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.3 16.7 18.0 -0.3 44.6 45.6 16.1 17.0 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 11.0 11.3 16.0 -0.7 33.8 37.7 11.3 12.2 13.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 12.8 13.1 15.8 -0.7 35.2 38.5 12.9 13.8 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.3 14.2 -0.4 41.2 43.9 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.7 17.7 -0.7 36.5 39.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.2 7.3 13.9 -0.5 38.3 40.5 7.1 7.8 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.4 16.2 -0.5 38.2 40.5 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.4 14.7 -0.5 39.7 41.6 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.2 15.5 -0.5 39.5 41.9 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.0 14.9 -0.5 38.6 41.2 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.3 13.5 14.5 -0.4 40.7 43.4 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.4 16.3 -0.3 44.6 45.5 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.0 17.1 -0.4 41.0 43.2 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.5 14.7 15.2 -0.5 39.3 42.2 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.1 17.4 -0.5 38.5 41.1 14.8 15.7 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.7 13.9 -0.4 41.0 42.6 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.7 17.9 -0.3 42.8 44.2 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 8.6 12.0 -0.6 38.2 40.5 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.3 17.2 -0.5 39.4 41.7 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.5 17.5 -0.3 42.7 44.2 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.4 17.8 -0.2 45.9 46.5 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.1 16.1 -0.3 44.4 45.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 13.7 14.1 16.3 -0.6 35.6 38.9 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.1 12.8 14.1 -0.9 29.5 34.2 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.3 13.9 17.0 -0.5 37.9 40.6 13.6 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.4 16.6 -0.5 37.7 40.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.0 11.6 13.3 -0.3 42.6 43.7 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.9 18.0 -0.5 40.5 42.5 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------