***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 16.4 19.0 0.0 49.6 50.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.7 15.8 19.1 0.0 50.6 52.1 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.3 18.2 19.2 0.3 55.8 55.6 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.1 17.1 -0.4 41.7 44.8 12.5 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.5 13.9 16.8 -0.2 44.7 47.1 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.1 15.3 -0.1 47.9 49.8 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.0 19.0 -0.1 46.9 49.2 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.0 8.7 14.9 -0.3 43.8 46.8 8.1 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.4 17.2 -0.1 48.8 50.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.2 15.6 -0.1 47.8 49.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.3 14.9 16.5 -0.1 47.6 49.6 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.1 15.9 -0.2 46.3 48.6 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.3 15.4 0.0 50.1 51.3 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.4 17.4 0.3 56.9 56.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.0 16.5 18.2 -0.2 45.3 47.7 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.5 16.2 -0.1 47.0 49.0 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.7 16.7 18.6 0.0 49.3 51.3 15.9 16.7 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.7 14.9 0.0 50.1 51.2 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.0 16.1 19.2 0.2 55.3 55.4 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.9 9.4 13.1 -0.3 43.1 46.2 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.3 18.3 0.0 50.4 51.3 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.7 18.7 0.2 54.8 55.2 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 16.2 15.7 19.0 0.5 60.0 58.7 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.1 17.1 0.2 55.4 55.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.1 17.5 -0.1 47.1 48.8 14.4 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 13.6 14.0 15.1 -0.4 40.0 43.3 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.1 18.2 -0.1 48.1 49.5 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.0 17.6 -0.3 42.6 45.5 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.1 14.3 0.0 50.5 51.4 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 16.5 16.2 19.3 0.1 51.1 52.3 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------