***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 15.9 18.0 -0.5 33.8 36.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 14.8 18.0 -0.6 34.0 36.1 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 17.7 17.1 18.1 -0.3 40.2 41.4 16.9 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 12.0 11.9 16.1 -0.8 23.4 26.2 12.3 13.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 13.1 13.1 15.9 -0.8 24.5 27.3 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 12.2 12.3 14.2 -0.6 27.0 30.3 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 15.0 15.1 17.9 -0.7 30.4 33.0 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 7.5 7.6 13.9 -0.8 23.9 26.7 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 14.4 14.6 16.3 -0.6 29.2 31.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 68 32 0 100 14.3 14.4 14.7 -0.7 28.2 30.6 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 14.1 14.2 15.5 -0.7 27.9 30.4 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 12.1 12.2 14.8 -0.8 24.8 27.6 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 13.5 13.5 14.5 -0.6 27.5 30.9 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.1 15.4 16.3 -0.4 36.4 38.1 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 15.9 16.0 17.5 -0.5 33.0 35.0 16.0 16.5 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 14.6 14.6 15.3 -0.7 26.5 29.5 14.9 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 15.6 15.7 17.6 -0.6 32.9 35.5 15.7 16.3 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 12.6 12.8 13.9 -0.6 28.9 31.4 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.1 18.0 -0.4 38.2 39.8 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 8.6 8.6 11.9 -0.8 23.5 26.7 8.9 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 14.3 14.4 17.4 -0.6 31.3 33.4 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.3 14.8 17.7 -0.4 38.5 40.3 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.1 14.7 17.9 -0.3 41.6 42.7 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.1 16.1 -0.4 36.1 37.8 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 14.3 14.3 16.5 -0.7 26.4 29.2 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 13.2 13.0 14.0 -1.1 14.6 18.6 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.3 17.2 -0.6 29.8 32.5 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 13.3 13.4 16.7 -0.7 26.6 29.2 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 11.8 11.9 13.3 -0.5 31.6 34.0 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.3 18.2 -0.5 35.2 37.1 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------