***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 26.8 26.4 -2.1 24.5 27.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 26.7 26.8 26.4 -2.1 25.1 27.1 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 26.7 26.7 26.6 -2.0 26.0 28.5 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 19.1 18.7 24.1 -2.6 18.7 21.5 20.2 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 26.7 26.3 24.3 -2.9 17.4 20.4 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 94 6 0 100 24.7 23.7 21.3 -3.4 10.3 12.7 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 26.4 26.3 26.1 -2.3 22.7 24.7 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 14.3 13.6 21.9 -3.3 13.2 16.1 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 26.2 25.8 25.1 -2.7 18.6 21.7 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 25.9 25.4 23.1 -3.0 16.4 19.5 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 85 15 0 100 26.1 25.6 23.9 -3.0 15.6 18.6 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 89 11 0 100 25.1 24.5 23.0 -3.3 13.4 16.5 26.5 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 90 10 0 100 26.2 25.4 22.9 -3.3 12.8 15.6 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 77 23 0 100 26.1 25.9 24.6 -2.5 20.0 23.1 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 27.4 27.2 26.4 -2.2 21.2 23.9 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 87 13 0 100 26.8 26.3 23.7 -3.0 14.8 17.7 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 26.0 26.0 26.0 -2.0 25.4 27.3 26.6 27.6 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 25.0 24.4 21.8 -3.2 14.5 17.5 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 26.3 26.5 26.6 -1.9 26.9 29.0 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 89 11 0 100 20.4 19.3 19.6 -3.5 11.5 14.6 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 26.5 26.2 25.9 -2.6 20.1 23.0 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 26.7 26.9 26.4 -1.6 29.7 31.6 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 26.4 26.5 26.4 -1.9 26.5 29.0 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 25.7 25.4 24.2 -2.7 18.5 21.6 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 26.4 26.2 24.8 -2.6 19.4 22.0 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 25.8 24.7 22.2 -3.7 9.6 12.3 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 26.3 26.2 25.5 -2.3 21.7 24.2 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 27.0 26.6 24.9 -2.6 17.5 20.3 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 20.0 19.3 20.9 -3.3 13.4 16.4 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 26.6 26.6 26.6 -2.1 25.4 27.5 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------