***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 26.5 27.3 -1.0 36.4 38.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 26.7 27.1 27.2 -1.1 36.1 37.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 26.4 27.0 27.5 -0.9 38.2 39.8 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 19.1 19.4 25.9 -1.4 30.6 33.1 19.6 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 26.5 26.8 25.6 -1.4 30.8 33.3 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 25.4 25.5 23.3 -1.4 29.0 31.7 25.9 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 26.5 26.9 27.0 -1.2 33.9 35.8 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 14.6 14.7 23.8 -1.5 29.9 32.5 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 26.4 26.7 25.8 -1.3 32.3 34.7 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 26.2 26.4 24.4 -1.4 31.2 33.7 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 26.3 26.6 25.2 -1.3 32.4 34.8 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 25.7 25.9 25.0 -1.4 30.7 33.2 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 26.7 26.7 24.4 -1.5 29.3 31.9 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 26.2 26.8 25.4 -1.1 34.9 36.8 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 27.6 27.9 26.9 -1.0 34.8 36.9 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 27.2 27.4 25.0 -1.4 30.4 32.9 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 26.1 26.6 26.8 -1.1 35.1 36.9 26.4 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 25.2 25.5 23.4 -1.5 30.9 33.4 25.6 26.8 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 26.2 26.8 27.4 -0.9 38.2 39.6 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 20.8 21.0 21.3 -1.6 29.4 31.9 21.3 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 26.4 26.8 26.8 -1.2 34.1 36.3 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.3 27.1 -0.8 39.5 40.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 26.4 27.1 27.2 -0.8 39.0 40.4 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 25.9 26.3 25.4 -1.2 34.7 36.7 26.2 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 26.8 27.0 25.8 -1.2 33.5 35.7 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 26.3 26.3 24.3 -1.7 26.5 29.2 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 26.2 26.6 26.4 -1.1 35.0 36.9 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 27.3 27.6 26.3 -1.3 31.3 33.7 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 20.3 20.6 22.4 -1.5 30.4 32.9 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 26.4 26.9 27.4 -1.0 36.7 38.3 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------