***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 29.7 29.0 0.3 54.5 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.2 29.0 28.8 0.3 54.0 52.7 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.4 29.4 29.1 0.5 56.9 54.8 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 20.4 21.8 27.4 -0.3 45.4 45.8 20.7 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 27.5 29.2 27.2 -0.2 47.2 47.2 27.9 29.4 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 26.6 27.5 24.6 -0.6 41.4 42.2 26.9 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.2 28.8 28.6 0.1 51.7 51.0 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 15.4 16.6 25.2 -0.4 44.1 44.5 15.8 17.1 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 26.9 28.8 27.4 0.0 49.9 49.3 27.2 28.8 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 26.6 28.2 25.9 -0.2 47.2 47.0 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 27.1 28.8 26.7 -0.1 48.4 48.0 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 26.3 27.7 26.4 -0.3 45.6 45.7 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.8 25.8 -0.5 43.5 43.9 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 26.7 28.7 27.0 0.3 54.4 52.6 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 28.5 29.9 28.2 -0.2 47.5 47.4 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 28.3 29.7 26.4 -0.3 45.1 45.2 28.6 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.3 28.4 0.2 52.6 51.7 26.7 28.1 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 25.9 27.4 24.9 -0.2 46.7 46.6 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.7 28.8 29.1 0.5 56.8 54.8 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 21.4 22.6 22.6 -0.6 41.2 42.3 21.9 23.3 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.0 28.4 0.2 52.4 51.4 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 29.1 29.1 28.6 0.4 56.5 54.7 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.1 28.9 0.6 59.0 56.4 26.9 28.4 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 26.5 28.4 26.9 0.2 53.3 51.7 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.8 29.4 27.5 0.1 51.6 51.0 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 27.6 28.4 25.8 -0.7 40.6 41.8 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.8 28.0 0.2 53.2 52.3 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 28.4 29.7 27.6 -0.4 44.4 44.8 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 21.0 22.5 23.8 -0.3 45.2 45.5 21.4 22.9 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.9 29.0 0.3 54.6 53.1 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------