***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 27.9 28.0 -0.8 32.9 35.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 28.9 27.8 28.0 -0.9 33.4 35.6 27.8 28.5 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.9 28.2 -0.7 35.7 38.0 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 20.5 20.4 26.3 -1.4 23.1 26.0 21.0 21.8 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 27.8 27.7 26.1 -1.4 23.3 26.1 28.3 29.1 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 26.3 26.1 23.6 -1.6 16.5 20.0 27.0 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 27.5 27.5 27.7 -1.0 30.4 32.6 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 15.9 15.6 24.1 -1.6 19.5 22.6 16.3 17.0 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 27.4 27.4 26.5 -1.2 25.9 28.8 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 27.1 27.0 24.9 -1.4 23.0 26.0 27.5 28.4 29.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 27.4 27.3 25.7 -1.3 23.5 26.5 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 26.6 26.4 25.3 -1.5 20.8 23.9 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 27.6 27.4 24.8 -1.6 19.1 22.3 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 27.2 27.4 26.1 -1.0 29.6 32.4 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 28.6 28.6 27.5 -1.0 27.8 30.5 28.9 29.7 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 28.3 28.1 25.5 -1.5 20.9 24.1 28.8 29.7 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 27.1 27.2 27.6 -0.9 32.2 34.3 27.2 27.9 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 26.4 26.2 23.8 -1.5 21.2 24.4 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.5 28.2 -0.7 36.5 38.6 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 22.0 21.6 21.6 -1.7 16.4 19.8 22.5 23.3 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 27.6 27.6 27.5 -1.1 28.5 31.2 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.7 27.9 27.8 -0.6 38.2 39.7 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.6 27.7 28.0 -0.6 37.8 39.9 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 26.9 27.0 25.9 -1.1 28.2 31.1 27.2 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 27.7 27.7 26.5 -1.1 27.3 29.9 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 27.3 27.0 24.6 -1.9 15.0 18.2 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 27.4 27.4 27.1 -1.0 30.0 32.4 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 28.4 28.3 26.7 -1.4 22.7 25.6 28.9 29.7 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 21.6 21.3 22.8 -1.5 19.3 22.7 22.1 22.8 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 28.6 27.6 28.1 -0.8 34.0 36.2 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------