***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-07.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 8.3 10.2 68.4 51.6 39.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 4.2 8.4 9.7 67.7 51.0 37.7 4.3 8.1 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 5.0 11.2 12.0 83.2 57.7 42.5 5.0 9.0 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.8 12.6 84.3 57.8 41.5 4.0 7.7 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.6 9.5 13.1 90.9 61.1 43.1 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.9 9.9 12.6 91.2 61.0 44.7 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 5.1 9.4 9.1 59.9 47.3 36.4 5.6 10.2 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.2 20.8 14.5 100.4 64.4 47.3 8.3 14.1 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.6 10.0 13.5 88.3 59.8 43.5 3.1 6.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.8 17.7 16.0 97.5 63.2 47.0 6.1 11.7 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.9 10.6 12.5 101.4 65.0 44.9 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.8 12.2 12.3 105.2 66.4 47.8 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.4 14.0 111.7 68.0 51.6 2.9 5.5 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.2 17.0 15.7 95.6 62.3 47.9 5.7 11.4 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.5 7.5 9.4 80.0 56.7 42.7 2.3 5.5 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.5 11.0 13.4 108.1 66.7 48.5 3.1 6.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 71 29 0 100 3.2 6.3 7.8 53.4 43.4 33.3 3.9 8.1 14.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.1 16.8 17.9 98.4 62.8 48.4 6.4 11.5 18.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.7 10.2 10.6 76.5 55.1 39.9 4.8 8.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.7 17.4 16.1 98.3 62.8 48.2 7.4 12.4 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.6 12.2 11.9 83.6 58.5 43.2 4.3 9.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 3.8 8.0 8.4 58.8 45.5 34.0 4.6 9.2 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 5.5 14.8 12.2 86.8 58.9 41.3 6.0 11.2 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.0 15.6 15.9 95.3 62.5 48.0 5.6 10.5 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.3 9.1 12.5 77.7 55.3 43.3 4.3 7.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.6 8.4 11.4 103.8 65.8 49.0 2.8 5.2 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.7 11.0 11.7 69.5 51.8 41.4 5.7 10.5 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.6 10.3 11.8 89.1 60.0 44.0 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.2 20.6 17.1 95.7 61.5 47.7 7.3 14.1 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 5.6 10.3 10.3 71.1 52.6 38.8 5.9 9.6 14.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------