***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2013.-14.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 14.0 12.6 128.4 73.0 47.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.9 17.7 14.0 139.8 75.3 48.8 3.9 7.8 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.3 23.1 12.8 133.6 74.1 50.9 4.1 9.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.4 27.7 13.0 139.7 75.4 50.4 4.8 10.5 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.9 23.6 12.9 133.1 74.0 49.4 5.2 10.5 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.5 16.5 15.1 103.9 66.3 53.0 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.9 14.3 13.9 129.3 72.9 47.7 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 24.3 36.5 14.5 130.7 73.3 54.9 11.2 19.3 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 3.8 21.0 13.6 129.8 73.3 49.4 3.7 8.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.2 31.3 15.5 132.7 73.8 53.8 6.2 13.0 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.7 19.0 11.2 127.5 72.7 50.5 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 15.7 23.4 10.7 123.5 71.8 52.2 6.6 12.1 19.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.7 13.0 11.6 107.7 67.7 52.2 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.4 21.8 14.5 110.7 67.9 50.5 6.3 12.2 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.6 14.7 11.4 142.6 75.9 48.2 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.0 17.0 11.7 119.7 70.7 51.5 5.5 9.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.8 13.0 12.9 132.1 73.4 48.2 3.9 6.8 10.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 15.8 24.0 18.2 127.7 72.4 55.7 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 4.9 20.0 13.3 136.6 74.6 48.6 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.8 21.0 18.1 120.9 70.6 56.8 6.8 11.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.7 22.4 12.0 129.6 73.2 48.5 5.0 10.1 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 6.1 23.0 11.9 120.3 70.6 48.3 5.8 11.5 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.3 16.9 12.4 123.7 71.6 48.1 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.1 21.5 15.6 125.0 72.0 53.8 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.3 20.4 14.6 129.4 73.0 48.7 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.9 8.3 95.6 64.4 48.2 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 5.1 21.6 14.5 122.9 71.6 47.9 4.8 10.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.3 16.3 11.8 134.8 74.3 48.3 2.9 6.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.5 28.5 17.9 121.7 70.7 55.7 9.0 15.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.2 22.2 14.0 136.3 74.6 48.7 4.2 8.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------