***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2013.-21.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 7.4 8.5 80.2 57.9 43.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.5 9.5 9.9 85.9 58.1 39.8 3.7 7.2 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.8 9.8 9.7 92.5 61.4 45.4 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 15.3 11.5 113.0 69.0 52.0 2.9 7.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.6 13.3 12.1 115.2 69.4 51.1 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.7 15.5 15.5 117.6 70.2 53.1 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.9 7.9 9.6 81.7 56.7 38.8 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.5 18.0 14.3 123.5 71.3 55.7 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.7 11.7 12.1 113.0 68.8 49.2 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.1 11.9 14.6 118.0 69.8 52.9 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.8 12.8 11.5 123.9 71.7 53.3 2.1 5.3 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.7 17.9 11.2 126.2 72.4 54.7 2.8 7.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.1 10.6 12.2 121.7 70.9 52.9 1.5 4.2 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.7 13.6 13.2 98.4 62.8 46.7 4.0 8.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.7 11.1 10.1 121.2 71.4 51.2 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.9 8.5 11.9 123.0 71.4 53.2 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 2.8 8.1 9.9 87.1 58.7 36.2 3.3 6.2 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.2 16.9 111.0 67.3 53.1 3.0 6.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.7 9.7 87.1 58.7 41.2 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.3 18.0 116.5 68.8 57.2 3.2 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.7 9.6 100.2 65.0 47.0 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.3 7.5 10.2 89.2 59.9 37.9 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.5 8.2 9.5 87.5 58.9 42.5 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 9.7 11.3 13.4 102.4 64.5 48.9 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.4 11.9 10.7 91.0 61.8 46.1 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 2.6 11.2 9.4 124.3 71.6 50.9 2.2 4.9 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.7 11.3 10.2 82.0 58.3 43.4 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.5 14.5 11.3 120.2 71.0 52.3 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.0 15.8 17.4 111.3 67.3 54.3 4.6 8.9 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.6 9.8 85.5 58.2 41.7 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------