***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 44.9 39.8 98.0 58.5 48.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 28.9 48.5 40.6 97.2 57.3 44.9 31.5 43.0 56.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 32.5 60.3 42.5 105.3 62.1 50.1 34.0 48.2 64.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 62.0 71.9 45.2 111.9 65.7 54.5 33.5 51.0 72.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 49.7 58.5 46.1 113.5 66.4 54.0 28.1 41.6 58.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 54.5 59.1 52.8 107.2 62.8 52.7 30.4 45.2 63.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 27.3 44.9 39.5 90.7 53.0 42.5 29.4 42.5 57.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 81.6 98.5 52.2 118.8 68.6 57.7 51.0 70.9 93.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.5 57.1 47.3 110.9 65.2 52.3 26.7 41.0 57.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 69.9 83.1 55.1 115.4 67.1 55.2 40.4 59.0 81.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 44.6 55.6 42.1 116.8 67.8 55.0 22.9 36.4 53.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 54.7 70.1 41.2 119.3 68.9 57.5 27.8 44.6 65.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 36.2 44.9 45.6 116.4 67.6 56.1 18.2 29.2 43.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 47.3 75.8 51.9 101.6 59.2 49.8 47.5 64.9 84.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 18.4 46.3 37.1 112.1 65.8 54.3 17.7 30.2 46.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 37.0 46.4 44.6 117.9 68.2 56.2 18.7 29.9 44.0 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 30.7 46.1 37.0 88.4 51.3 40.9 34.2 45.2 57.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 64.7 72.7 63.5 112.1 65.3 54.8 41.7 56.5 73.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 32.6 58.8 40.9 100.1 59.2 46.5 35.3 49.7 66.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 57.5 65.6 64.2 113.7 66.2 57.7 37.5 50.4 65.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 30.8 59.6 41.2 107.0 63.6 51.9 30.8 45.2 62.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 36.3 54.4 36.7 87.7 51.0 41.6 39.9 53.6 69.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 33.9 55.6 41.4 100.7 59.3 47.3 36.1 48.3 61.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 61.9 67.0 54.0 107.8 63.1 52.2 37.8 53.0 70.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 31.0 58.1 47.5 104.5 61.7 51.8 30.5 45.6 63.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 37.0 43.8 34.6 110.7 65.5 54.6 20.4 31.0 44.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 37.2 63.4 46.3 97.9 58.0 49.2 37.9 54.7 74.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 28.4 58.9 42.0 113.3 66.3 54.9 27.9 41.7 58.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 84.2 91.5 63.2 109.7 63.8 54.9 58.2 75.0 94.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 33.1 55.6 41.6 98.9 58.4 46.3 35.0 48.1 63.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------