***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 16.6 16.7 19.3 1.2 71.9 69.9 15.4 16.0 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.4 19.2 1.1 70.1 68.3 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 18.6 18.8 19.9 1.4 75.7 73.4 16.6 17.5 18.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 14.5 15.7 18.0 2.4 89.7 86.9 11.9 12.9 13.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 15.7 16.6 18.5 2.1 86.9 84.2 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 14.4 15.4 15.5 2.1 90.6 88.1 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 16.5 16.6 19.0 1.0 67.7 66.1 14.8 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 9.6 10.1 15.1 1.5 82.0 79.9 7.5 8.4 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 16.7 17.4 18.5 1.9 85.2 82.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 16.3 16.8 16.3 1.7 83.6 81.2 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 16.4 16.9 17.8 1.7 83.0 80.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 14.2 14.8 16.8 1.9 86.2 84.1 12.3 13.0 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 13 87 100 15.7 16.2 16.5 1.6 83.4 80.8 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 16.8 17.2 17.5 1.5 80.3 77.8 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 17.7 18.2 19.4 1.7 82.7 80.8 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 16.8 17.4 17.3 1.7 84.4 81.6 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 17.0 17.1 19.0 1.2 71.4 69.5 15.3 16.1 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 14.8 15.3 15.4 1.5 81.4 79.2 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.3 16.6 19.6 1.4 74.2 72.2 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 10.7 11.4 13.7 1.7 85.5 83.1 8.8 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 16.5 16.9 19.1 1.5 79.4 77.3 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.9 16.1 19.2 1.2 71.8 70.0 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 15.9 16.4 20.2 2.0 82.9 80.3 14.3 14.9 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 16.5 16.9 17.6 1.4 78.6 76.2 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 16.3 16.5 18.6 1.4 75.6 73.6 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 15.2 15.7 15.4 1.7 83.5 81.4 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.6 18.8 1.2 72.9 70.8 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 15.6 16.4 18.3 2.1 87.4 84.6 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 13.7 14.3 14.7 1.5 82.7 80.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 16.8 16.9 19.6 1.2 72.0 70.0 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------