***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 14.5 15.3 18.6 -0.3 44.5 44.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 15.8 15.1 18.5 -0.3 45.0 45.4 14.4 15.4 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.1 17.6 19.1 0.0 49.2 48.2 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 11.6 13.4 16.5 0.2 53.2 51.6 11.9 13.1 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 12.8 14.0 16.4 0.1 51.2 50.1 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 12.0 13.2 14.6 0.2 54.0 51.6 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.5 18.5 -0.4 43.4 44.1 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.2 8.2 14.0 -0.2 45.2 45.5 7.5 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.4 16.5 0.1 52.2 50.7 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 14.1 15.1 14.9 0.0 49.3 48.5 14.3 15.2 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.9 15.0 16.1 0.1 51.4 49.8 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 11.9 12.9 15.1 -0.1 48.9 47.9 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.1 14.3 14.5 0.2 54.5 52.2 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.4 15.9 -0.4 41.8 43.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 15.6 16.6 18.0 0.1 51.6 50.7 15.8 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 14.4 15.8 15.6 0.3 56.7 53.6 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.9 16.4 18.4 -0.1 47.4 47.4 15.6 16.5 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 12.4 13.3 13.8 -0.1 47.6 47.3 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.6 15.4 18.6 -0.2 46.4 46.4 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 8.4 9.2 11.5 -0.2 46.1 46.4 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.0 17.8 -0.1 48.5 48.1 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.1 18.3 -0.1 47.8 47.6 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.8 18.5 -0.2 46.9 46.7 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 14.6 15.4 16.0 -0.1 46.8 46.6 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 13.8 14.8 17.0 -0.3 44.6 45.3 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.2 14.3 14.4 0.1 53.4 51.3 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 13.8 14.9 17.7 -0.3 44.3 44.9 14.1 15.3 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 13.1 14.5 17.0 0.3 56.5 53.9 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.3 12.3 13.2 -0.2 46.2 46.3 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 14.8 15.7 18.8 -0.2 45.6 45.7 14.9 15.9 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------