***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.9 19.0 0.3 57.4 54.9 15.2 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.6 18.8 0.2 54.8 53.1 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 17.7 18.0 19.5 0.5 63.2 59.6 16.9 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.6 14.0 17.1 0.9 76.8 70.6 12.3 13.0 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 14.7 14.9 17.3 0.8 73.3 67.4 13.5 14.1 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 13.6 13.9 15.1 0.8 79.1 72.7 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.8 18.8 0.1 52.3 51.1 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 8.5 8.8 14.6 0.4 63.7 59.0 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 15.8 16.1 17.4 0.8 73.6 67.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.7 15.6 0.6 69.4 63.7 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 45 55 100 15.5 15.6 16.9 0.6 69.6 64.0 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.1 13.5 15.9 0.6 69.3 63.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 14.8 15.0 15.4 0.7 74.7 68.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.1 16.7 0.3 58.9 56.0 15.3 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 17.1 17.2 18.6 0.6 69.6 65.1 16.0 16.5 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 16.0 16.4 16.4 0.8 76.2 69.6 14.9 15.4 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.5 18.7 0.3 57.9 55.4 15.7 16.3 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 14.1 14.1 14.6 0.5 67.7 62.6 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.7 19.0 0.3 58.4 56.0 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.1 12.5 0.5 69.0 63.8 8.9 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 15.3 15.6 18.4 0.5 65.6 61.2 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 15.3 15.4 18.7 0.2 57.1 54.9 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.1 15.4 19.2 0.5 64.3 60.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.0 16.7 0.4 63.8 59.5 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.5 17.7 0.3 60.5 57.3 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 14.6 14.7 14.9 0.7 72.6 67.4 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.4 18.3 0.3 58.2 55.6 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 14.8 15.2 17.6 0.9 77.2 71.0 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.1 13.9 0.5 66.7 61.6 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.0 19.2 0.2 56.6 54.6 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------