***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.07.2019.-07.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 30.5 30.9 31.5 2.4 79.4 77.1 27.9 29.0 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 29.6 29.8 31.3 1.7 72.0 69.9 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 30.4 31.0 32.3 2.9 82.0 79.4 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 24.1 26.1 29.6 3.8 91.0 87.8 20.2 21.7 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 31.6 33.0 31.0 3.8 88.6 86.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 30.0 32.1 28.4 4.0 92.5 90.1 26.3 27.6 28.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 29.4 29.6 30.7 1.6 70.5 68.6 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 19.0 20.1 28.3 3.4 86.1 83.7 15.6 16.9 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 30.9 32.5 32.1 3.9 89.8 87.3 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 30.6 31.9 29.6 3.7 87.9 85.5 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 31.1 32.4 31.6 3.8 88.0 85.7 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 30.2 31.6 30.3 3.8 88.7 86.3 26.5 27.9 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 31.5 33.3 31.4 4.0 90.7 88.3 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.1 30.0 2.2 77.4 74.9 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 31.5 32.6 32.1 2.9 84.5 81.4 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 32.0 33.7 31.2 4.0 90.1 87.6 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 28.8 29.1 30.8 1.7 72.2 69.9 26.6 27.6 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 29.8 30.7 28.1 3.2 84.3 81.9 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 29.5 29.8 31.8 2.2 76.2 73.9 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 25.5 26.7 26.0 3.2 85.7 83.2 21.8 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 30.9 31.8 32.2 3.2 85.0 82.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 29.6 29.8 30.6 1.6 71.9 69.7 27.1 28.3 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 9 91 100 30.0 30.8 32.6 3.1 83.9 81.1 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 29.7 30.3 30.3 2.7 80.9 78.3 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 30.6 31.2 30.5 2.6 81.5 79.2 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 30.8 32.2 29.6 3.7 88.9 86.5 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 29.8 30.3 30.8 2.4 80.4 78.0 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 31.9 33.8 30.9 3.7 90.4 87.2 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 25.0 26.0 27.4 3.3 85.3 82.7 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 29.5 29.9 31.6 2.1 75.1 72.9 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------