***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.6 29.9 0.6 57.2 56.8 26.9 28.1 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.5 28.3 29.9 0.3 53.4 53.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 28.3 28.6 30.5 0.9 60.4 59.4 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 22.4 22.2 28.0 1.4 68.2 65.2 19.6 20.9 22.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 29.7 29.5 29.0 1.4 66.8 64.1 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 28.4 28.3 26.4 1.4 68.5 65.5 25.9 27.0 28.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.1 29.5 0.1 51.9 52.4 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.8 26.5 0.9 61.4 59.9 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 29.4 29.3 29.7 1.6 69.2 65.9 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 28.9 28.8 27.6 1.4 66.7 64.0 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 29.2 28.9 29.2 1.3 66.0 63.6 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 28.3 28.0 28.3 1.1 63.4 61.5 26.0 27.1 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 29.5 29.3 28.6 1.3 67.0 64.2 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 28.1 27.8 27.8 0.2 52.4 53.0 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.8 30.1 0.9 62.2 60.8 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.2 28.9 1.4 68.1 65.1 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.0 29.6 0.4 55.4 55.3 26.4 27.6 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.2 27.5 26.2 0.9 60.7 59.3 25.6 26.8 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.9 30.2 0.5 56.1 56.0 26.4 27.5 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.9 23.0 23.8 0.7 58.9 58.0 21.3 22.4 23.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 28.4 28.8 30.0 1.0 62.3 60.6 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 28.4 28.3 29.4 0.4 54.7 54.8 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.4 30.4 0.8 59.7 58.9 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 27.7 27.8 28.2 0.6 57.5 56.9 26.2 27.3 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.7 28.5 0.6 57.8 57.1 27.0 28.1 29.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 28.2 28.6 27.9 1.0 62.8 60.9 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.1 29.0 0.5 56.5 56.1 26.5 27.6 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 30.4 30.3 29.1 1.4 68.3 65.4 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.6 22.8 25.2 0.8 59.9 58.6 20.8 22.1 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.2 30.0 0.4 55.2 55.2 26.6 27.8 28.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------