***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.2 30.7 0.1 51.4 50.1 27.7 29.1 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 29.5 28.9 30.6 -0.1 48.5 48.2 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.3 31.3 0.4 54.9 52.9 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.7 29.3 0.9 63.1 58.7 21.1 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 30.2 30.5 29.5 0.7 59.7 56.4 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.8 29.3 26.8 0.8 62.2 57.7 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.2 28.5 30.3 -0.2 47.0 46.8 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.2 27.5 0.3 53.9 52.1 16.7 17.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 29.6 30.0 29.7 0.8 60.8 57.4 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.7 28.2 0.6 58.6 55.8 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.9 29.4 0.6 58.2 55.3 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.9 29.2 0.3 54.8 52.8 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 30.0 30.2 28.4 0.6 58.1 55.2 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 29.2 28.4 28.0 -0.4 45.3 45.5 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.7 31.0 30.5 0.8 61.6 57.8 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.8 31.3 29.2 0.8 61.8 57.8 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.3 30.4 -0.1 49.2 48.7 27.2 28.4 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.5 27.1 0.3 54.4 52.5 26.8 28.1 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.5 30.9 0.0 50.1 49.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 24.6 24.1 24.3 0.1 50.8 49.5 22.7 24.1 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.7 30.3 0.5 56.2 53.8 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.8 30.2 -0.1 49.0 48.7 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 29.1 28.7 30.8 0.1 50.8 50.1 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 29.0 28.7 28.6 0.1 51.9 50.6 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.6 29.0 0.3 53.7 51.6 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.9 29.1 0.5 57.2 54.7 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.8 29.6 0.1 51.0 49.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 30.7 31.3 29.8 1.0 64.6 60.0 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.0 23.7 25.8 0.1 51.9 50.4 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.7 30.7 0.0 49.7 49.0 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------