***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.07.2019.-14.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 3.5 10.1 9.5 76.3 57.2 40.5 3.2 7.4 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.5 12.6 10.7 100.1 65.3 47.4 3.9 7.8 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.8 12.0 10.4 77.2 56.3 44.1 4.1 9.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.7 13.1 10.1 74.6 55.5 42.3 4.8 10.5 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.2 11.7 9.3 67.9 52.8 41.7 5.2 10.5 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.0 11.7 81.1 57.1 45.1 4.4 9.1 16.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.5 11.0 105.8 66.8 47.8 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.9 25.3 12.8 86.4 59.8 47.2 11.2 19.3 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.5 8.9 10.1 66.0 51.3 41.3 3.7 8.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 18.9 17.7 13.0 81.0 57.9 46.1 6.2 13.0 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.3 9.6 9.8 73.5 54.4 41.9 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 6.6 14.4 9.2 75.7 55.5 42.9 6.6 12.1 19.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 4.0 8.2 8.0 64.6 52.3 38.8 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.3 14.2 82.2 58.6 45.7 6.3 12.2 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.7 8.4 70.8 54.5 38.4 2.5 5.6 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 5.2 10.4 8.6 68.9 53.1 39.4 5.5 9.6 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.9 10.6 11.0 103.3 66.2 48.0 3.9 6.8 10.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.8 15.3 85.4 59.0 49.4 6.2 11.8 19.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.4 14.3 11.0 96.1 63.8 47.5 5.0 9.3 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.0 17.7 16.6 101.2 64.2 52.6 6.8 11.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.0 11.3 10.2 70.1 53.8 43.1 5.0 10.1 17.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 6.3 19.8 12.0 103.5 66.0 47.9 5.8 11.5 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.4 12.4 11.6 91.1 61.7 47.0 4.5 8.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.1 12.4 12.8 74.2 54.9 44.6 5.5 10.6 17.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.0 11.8 79.3 58.3 46.5 4.1 8.7 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.0 7.6 71.4 51.9 40.3 4.0 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.3 13.8 11.3 80.7 58.6 44.2 4.8 10.1 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.9 9.2 73.1 55.5 40.4 2.9 6.3 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.3 21.2 17.5 91.2 60.2 50.4 9.0 15.8 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.6 14.7 10.5 95.1 63.5 46.6 4.2 8.9 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------