***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.07.2019.-21.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.3 14.0 8.4 92.5 64.0 47.0 4.1 8.6 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.0 11.1 7.6 88.3 62.9 46.8 3.7 7.2 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.3 9.8 8.3 84.6 61.5 46.5 3.8 7.0 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.4 11.3 7.3 84.6 61.4 43.6 2.9 7.1 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.6 10.2 7.2 85.5 61.8 44.3 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.6 15.3 11.9 114.4 69.7 49.4 3.5 7.4 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.0 7.7 90.7 63.6 45.9 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.0 15.4 10.9 104.2 66.6 48.8 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.3 8.0 85.4 61.6 45.5 3.4 6.5 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.4 9.8 10.7 96.1 64.4 48.5 2.8 5.9 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.8 9.5 7.1 95.1 64.3 46.2 2.1 5.3 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.6 14.9 8.6 107.0 67.7 46.8 2.8 7.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.2 10.6 9.9 118.4 71.1 47.7 1.5 4.2 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.0 16.0 13.9 104.5 67.6 52.8 4.0 8.4 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.6 7.7 5.8 83.1 61.1 40.1 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.4 7.3 8.6 104.0 67.2 47.3 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 9.8 7.8 96.0 65.1 47.7 3.3 6.2 10.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.1 12.0 14.2 104.5 66.7 51.5 3.0 6.5 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.9 7.9 86.8 62.3 47.8 4.3 8.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.6 13.7 16.5 125.3 72.0 54.9 3.2 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.0 8.0 87.1 62.5 45.5 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.4 8.9 103.1 66.9 52.0 2.8 5.4 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.3 9.0 8.8 86.4 62.2 48.9 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.6 10.9 11.4 92.2 63.4 49.2 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.6 13.0 8.9 93.7 64.5 47.3 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.2 10.0 7.4 109.1 68.5 42.5 2.2 4.9 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 4.2 14.8 9.2 94.3 64.7 47.5 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.4 7.2 85.1 61.7 43.8 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 15.6 15.4 106.6 67.0 52.3 4.6 8.9 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.8 7.8 85.5 62.1 46.3 3.5 6.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------