***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.06.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.9 15.5 7.8 98.4 65.4 42.4 3.3 8.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 11.7 7.1 102.5 66.1 44.5 2.8 6.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.3 16.7 9.0 116.6 70.2 45.8 2.7 6.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.2 22.4 9.6 127.0 73.1 45.1 3.9 9.1 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.8 14.9 9.1 132.1 74.1 44.1 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.0 21.3 12.1 141.1 75.8 50.7 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.1 11.3 6.1 84.5 61.1 42.0 3.6 7.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.0 24.9 10.7 125.5 71.9 50.5 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.5 15.5 9.8 132.0 73.9 44.5 2.4 5.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.3 23.2 11.3 126.5 72.3 48.2 3.8 9.3 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.6 15.2 8.1 135.8 74.7 46.4 2.5 5.7 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 2.8 18.1 8.4 134.5 74.2 49.0 2.6 6.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.5 13.8 9.5 149.4 77.4 49.2 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.9 22.9 12.9 114.9 69.8 48.5 4.7 10.7 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 2.6 15.7 8.5 141.3 75.8 44.8 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.7 11.2 8.6 139.7 75.5 47.3 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.8 12.2 5.6 75.0 57.0 39.7 4.5 9.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 19.2 13.7 118.2 70.3 50.1 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 19.6 8.2 113.1 69.4 46.2 4.1 9.2 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.6 13.4 14.0 116.8 69.1 52.0 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.2 17.4 9.0 124.2 72.2 44.0 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 6.1 16.6 7.4 91.0 62.9 42.7 5.5 10.8 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.0 16.6 9.6 119.9 71.3 47.3 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.0 20.1 12.2 122.7 71.5 49.1 3.5 8.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.9 16.4 8.9 108.3 68.5 44.6 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 3.2 18.5 7.1 146.4 76.7 47.1 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.0 13.9 8.0 93.3 64.3 42.8 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.8 20.1 9.4 136.2 74.9 46.4 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.6 24.2 14.2 113.0 68.4 50.2 6.1 12.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.7 16.5 7.8 106.2 67.7 45.8 4.3 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------