***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 19.6 22.4 4.2 99.8 99.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 17.0 22.3 22.4 4.2 99.9 98.8 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 19.2 23.8 22.4 4.2 99.8 98.9 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 14.8 17.1 19.1 2.5 95.1 92.6 11.7 12.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 15.9 18.1 19.3 2.7 96.9 94.8 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 14.5 15.8 16.4 2.1 93.8 91.1 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 17.2 21.6 22.2 4.0 99.8 98.7 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 10.0 13.0 17.0 2.9 98.4 96.6 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.9 19.8 19.9 3.1 98.8 97.3 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 16.6 19.3 17.9 2.9 98.5 96.8 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 16.5 18.8 18.7 2.7 97.8 95.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 14.2 16.4 17.8 2.8 98.4 96.6 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 15.8 16.9 17.0 1.9 91.7 89.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 17.2 20.0 19.7 3.1 98.9 97.6 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 18.0 19.4 20.2 2.2 94.0 91.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 17.0 18.5 18.0 2.2 93.8 91.6 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 17.5 21.5 21.6 3.8 99.8 98.2 15.2 16.1 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 15.0 17.4 16.7 2.6 98.0 95.8 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 16.8 21.6 22.5 4.5 100.0 99.0 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 11.0 13.4 14.7 2.8 98.4 96.2 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.9 20.2 21.3 3.4 99.0 97.5 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 16.4 20.2 21.6 3.9 99.8 98.1 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 16.1 19.9 22.3 4.5 99.9 99.2 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 17.0 20.0 19.5 3.1 99.0 97.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 16.9 19.7 20.6 3.2 98.7 96.9 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 15.3 16.0 16.6 1.9 87.2 85.3 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 17.2 21.4 21.2 3.5 99.3 97.8 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 15.8 17.0 19.3 2.1 92.1 89.7 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 14.3 17.5 16.1 2.8 98.4 96.2 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 17.3 22.1 22.7 4.3 99.9 99.0 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------