***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2012.-15.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 9999.0 19.1 20.1 2.5 92.0 84.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 16.6 18.4 20.2 2.5 91.8 84.5 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 18.4 20.2 20.3 2.7 94.2 86.3 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 13.6 14.9 18.2 2.1 88.1 81.3 11.3 12.3 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 15.1 16.6 18.2 2.3 91.0 83.7 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 13.8 14.9 16.3 2.1 89.0 81.9 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 16.7 18.1 20.0 2.3 89.8 82.8 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 9.1 10.2 16.1 2.2 90.3 83.7 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 21 79 100 16.1 17.7 18.6 2.5 92.8 84.7 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 16.1 17.5 16.8 2.2 90.8 83.5 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 13 87 100 16.0 17.4 17.9 2.5 93.0 86.4 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 14.0 15.5 17.4 2.5 93.1 86.8 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 15.2 16.9 16.9 2.5 93.0 86.4 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 16.8 18.0 17.9 2.0 88.4 80.2 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 17.5 18.5 19.2 2.2 89.3 82.6 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 16.5 18.1 17.6 2.4 92.5 85.9 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 17.1 18.1 19.3 2.0 86.3 79.4 14.9 15.8 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 14.6 15.9 15.9 2.1 90.3 82.5 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 16.6 18.3 20.2 2.7 93.3 85.8 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 10.2 11.3 14.1 2.0 87.8 80.3 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 16.0 17.7 19.5 2.5 92.7 84.3 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 16.2 17.3 19.2 2.0 86.6 79.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 16.1 18.0 20.0 2.7 94.1 86.2 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 16.7 18.2 18.0 2.3 91.8 83.7 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 16.2 17.6 18.5 2.2 89.5 81.6 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 14.8 16.1 16.9 2.4 92.7 84.6 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 16.2 17.8 19.1 2.2 89.9 82.2 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 15.2 16.3 18.7 2.1 88.7 82.0 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 13.1 14.3 15.2 2.1 89.3 81.8 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 16.9 18.7 20.4 2.7 93.1 85.8 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------