***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2012.-22.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 17.4 18.9 0.7 63.7 59.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.9 16.5 19.1 0.8 66.6 61.0 14.4 15.5 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.1 18.8 19.0 0.8 67.6 61.7 16.5 17.6 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.7 13.2 16.8 0.0 50.1 49.9 11.9 13.2 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.1 16.7 0.2 55.1 53.3 12.7 13.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.1 14.9 0.2 54.4 52.6 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.8 19.1 0.7 63.8 58.9 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.7 8.7 14.7 0.3 56.1 53.3 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.7 17.1 0.4 59.8 56.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.4 15.4 15.3 0.3 57.4 54.2 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.2 16.4 0.4 60.0 56.9 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.3 15.9 0.5 61.2 57.5 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.3 14.6 15.3 0.5 62.6 59.1 13.0 13.9 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.2 16.8 0.4 59.3 55.9 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.6 17.9 0.1 53.3 52.2 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.9 16.1 0.4 59.9 57.1 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 17.0 17.2 18.4 0.5 60.3 56.5 15.6 16.6 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.6 14.5 0.3 57.1 53.5 12.3 13.2 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 16.6 16.6 19.1 0.9 69.2 62.9 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 8.1 9.2 12.7 0.0 50.3 48.6 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.6 18.1 0.5 60.5 56.7 14.0 15.0 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.8 18.3 0.5 60.5 57.1 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 15.9 16.1 18.8 0.9 70.9 64.2 14.0 14.9 15.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.1 16.7 0.5 61.7 57.4 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.4 17.2 0.3 56.5 54.3 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.5 15.4 0.4 59.0 56.6 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.0 18.0 0.5 59.8 56.4 13.9 15.2 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 14.3 14.0 17.3 0.0 50.9 50.5 13.0 14.0 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.1 12.9 13.8 0.2 54.7 51.5 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.4 17.1 19.3 0.9 68.1 62.1 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------