***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 17.4 19.3 0.9 69.4 62.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.8 17.1 19.7 1.2 75.1 67.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.9 19.1 19.4 1.1 73.2 66.4 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.5 13.9 17.2 0.2 55.5 53.6 12.6 13.6 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.8 17.1 0.5 62.7 59.2 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.7 15.3 0.5 62.2 58.4 12.6 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.2 19.7 1.1 73.1 65.8 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.9 9.8 15.3 0.7 66.3 61.2 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.3 17.5 0.8 67.5 62.7 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.1 15.9 0.7 67.1 62.1 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 15.9 15.9 16.8 0.8 68.3 63.2 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.1 16.3 0.8 68.4 63.2 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 15.1 15.1 15.6 0.7 67.1 62.7 13.8 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 16.9 16.9 17.4 0.8 67.6 62.5 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 17.1 17.1 18.2 0.3 57.3 54.3 16.0 16.8 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.5 16.4 16.4 0.6 65.2 61.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.5 17.6 19.0 1.0 71.5 64.9 16.0 16.7 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 14.8 14.7 15.1 0.8 68.0 62.8 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.0 19.6 1.2 75.9 68.1 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.5 13.5 0.6 64.8 59.1 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 16.1 16.1 18.5 0.8 66.9 62.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.4 18.9 1.0 71.0 64.8 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.4 19.3 1.2 75.6 68.4 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 16.8 16.9 17.2 0.9 69.7 64.3 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.8 17.5 0.5 61.4 57.2 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.7 14.9 15.6 0.5 62.1 59.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.6 16.1 18.4 0.7 65.2 59.7 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.6 17.6 0.2 55.6 53.6 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 14.2 14.2 14.6 0.8 68.3 62.8 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 17.0 17.3 19.8 1.2 75.3 67.3 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------