***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 1 99 100 9999.0 33.3 33.3 4.9 99.0 95.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 30.3 34.9 33.7 5.4 99.5 96.4 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 30.6 35.0 33.8 5.3 99.0 95.6 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 24.1 27.2 30.7 3.9 94.3 90.3 20.1 21.7 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 31.7 35.1 31.5 4.3 96.5 92.4 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 30.1 32.1 28.1 3.4 91.0 87.6 26.2 27.7 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 30.1 34.5 33.1 4.9 99.2 95.6 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 19.3 22.4 29.6 4.4 96.2 92.6 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 31.0 35.1 32.5 4.7 97.9 93.9 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 30.8 34.3 30.7 4.7 97.2 93.4 27.1 28.5 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 31.2 34.4 31.2 4.3 95.9 92.1 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 30.4 33.5 30.7 4.4 96.0 92.7 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 31.6 34.8 30.5 4.3 95.6 92.6 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 30.0 33.4 31.6 4.5 97.8 92.7 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 31.8 34.0 32.1 3.5 92.2 88.6 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 32.1 35.1 30.8 4.1 95.1 91.7 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 29.5 33.6 32.6 4.8 99.1 94.8 26.5 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 29.9 33.7 29.7 4.7 97.8 93.5 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 30.0 35.2 33.9 5.7 99.7 96.6 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 25.8 29.8 27.6 4.6 97.5 93.9 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 30.9 34.7 33.1 4.6 97.6 93.0 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 30.2 34.6 32.5 4.7 99.1 94.4 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 3 97 100 30.1 34.9 33.8 5.6 99.5 96.1 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 29.9 33.4 31.6 4.6 98.0 93.3 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 30.8 34.1 31.5 4.1 96.8 91.9 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 31.0 33.5 30.0 4.2 94.0 91.4 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 30.1 33.6 32.0 4.2 97.9 93.2 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 32.0 34.3 31.1 3.5 91.5 87.8 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 25.2 29.1 28.9 4.7 97.9 93.6 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 30.1 34.7 33.9 5.4 99.5 96.4 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------