***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 30.8 30.9 1.5 71.4 62.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 30.3 30.9 31.2 1.9 75.7 65.8 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.3 30.7 31.1 1.7 73.8 64.8 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 20.8 23.3 29.0 0.6 59.3 55.0 21.1 22.5 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 27.8 30.7 29.1 0.9 63.9 58.2 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.8 26.4 0.4 57.0 54.0 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 29.1 30.4 30.8 1.7 73.9 64.2 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.3 18.9 27.3 1.0 65.0 59.0 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.3 30.5 29.4 1.2 67.4 60.5 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 29.5 30.3 28.0 1.1 66.8 60.1 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.7 30.6 28.8 1.1 67.0 60.6 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.0 29.7 28.5 1.0 65.0 59.3 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 30.0 30.3 27.8 0.7 60.7 56.5 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.1 30.2 28.8 1.4 69.5 61.4 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.7 30.8 29.6 0.6 59.4 55.2 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 30.8 31.2 28.3 0.8 62.0 57.2 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.8 30.1 30.6 1.7 74.5 64.6 27.2 28.3 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 28.6 29.3 27.0 1.1 66.3 59.4 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 29.7 30.5 31.3 2.0 76.6 66.7 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 24.5 24.9 24.8 0.8 62.0 56.3 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 29.7 30.6 30.3 1.3 68.4 61.1 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 30.1 30.6 30.5 1.7 74.3 64.9 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 29.9 30.6 31.0 1.9 76.3 66.7 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.9 30.0 28.9 1.4 69.8 61.8 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.8 30.5 29.1 1.0 65.1 58.5 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.7 27.8 0.4 56.5 53.9 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.2 30.0 29.7 1.2 68.1 60.3 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 28.6 30.7 29.2 0.5 57.5 54.0 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 24.0 24.6 25.9 1.0 64.7 58.0 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 30.0 30.6 31.3 1.8 75.4 65.7 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------