***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-08.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 7.1 7.4 54.2 39.8 33.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 4.7 6.0 7.6 57.0 39.2 35.1 4.7 8.6 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.2 6.8 7.2 53.9 39.4 33.7 5.4 9.7 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 3.0 3.5 5.6 43.6 32.7 28.1 3.6 7.2 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 2.8 3.4 5.5 41.7 31.9 27.5 3.5 6.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.4 2.6 5.2 40.1 31.1 27.3 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 5.9 8.2 7.7 60.9 41.0 36.1 6.1 11.0 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 6.8 7.5 5.7 40.2 30.0 26.4 8.3 13.9 21.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.5 3.1 6.2 44.8 33.9 28.8 3.0 6.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 4.7 5.4 6.6 43.0 30.9 27.2 6.0 11.5 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.0 3.0 4.4 35.5 28.4 24.9 3.6 6.5 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 3.7 3.8 4.1 34.2 27.7 24.1 4.7 8.2 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 2.3 1.8 3.6 29.4 20.9 19.5 3.3 6.1 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 5.6 7.4 8.3 56.1 37.8 32.2 6.0 11.9 20.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.1 2.4 4.9 42.6 35.0 28.8 2.2 5.0 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 3.4 3.0 4.0 32.9 25.8 23.1 4.1 7.4 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.0 6.7 8.3 65.6 45.0 38.6 4.2 7.9 13.1 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 5.2 6.0 7.8 46.4 32.5 28.5 6.1 10.7 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.4 6.6 7.6 55.5 38.8 33.9 5.4 9.4 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 5.1 5.6 7.0 43.7 31.4 27.2 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 4.1 5.6 6.5 47.9 37.5 31.5 4.4 9.4 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.6 7.1 8.3 62.3 43.2 36.2 4.7 9.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 6.0 7.9 7.8 57.7 40.5 33.0 6.0 10.7 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.4 6.8 7.9 51.8 36.5 31.0 5.9 10.7 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.8 4.7 6.8 45.9 35.0 30.2 4.3 7.6 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.2 3.1 26.8 22.6 20.0 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 5.0 6.2 7.8 51.6 37.2 32.0 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.8 3.0 4.9 40.9 31.8 27.2 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 70 30 0 100 6.6 7.2 7.5 45.0 31.0 27.4 7.9 14.5 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 6.2 7.3 7.3 54.6 37.3 33.5 6.5 10.2 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------