***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 7.1 3.7 45.8 46.4 29.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 2.3 5.6 4.3 49.5 46.6 29.9 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 2.3 6.2 4.0 49.6 46.9 31.2 2.7 7.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.7 14.0 5.3 82.0 61.4 37.6 3.9 8.7 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.6 8.0 4.8 73.3 57.6 35.4 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.7 15.2 8.0 109.5 68.2 43.2 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 3.4 7.9 4.6 50.9 48.8 32.6 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.6 16.9 5.4 86.8 60.3 39.2 5.7 11.7 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.3 7.2 4.5 63.5 53.8 33.6 2.3 6.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 3.6 11.1 5.4 70.4 55.3 36.7 3.5 8.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.7 7.9 3.9 71.9 55.8 34.9 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.8 12.1 4.1 95.5 63.4 37.8 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 2.2 10.0 5.5 108.0 67.6 41.2 2.4 5.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.5 12.5 6.0 66.9 53.4 36.4 4.6 10.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.5 9.1 4.9 85.9 62.9 38.9 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.1 7.6 5.1 97.9 65.0 40.1 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 4.2 9.2 4.4 51.8 47.8 29.8 4.7 10.0 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 4.3 14.2 7.1 76.3 57.3 39.6 4.6 10.3 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 3.0 7.9 4.3 51.9 47.0 29.9 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.1 12.7 8.5 97.2 63.9 44.7 4.2 8.0 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 3.1 8.2 3.7 56.1 50.8 32.1 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 4.5 9.6 4.4 54.1 47.1 28.7 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 2.6 7.8 4.7 58.6 49.4 31.9 3.4 8.0 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.4 10.2 5.7 64.7 52.4 36.0 3.8 9.0 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.5 9.9 5.1 61.8 54.1 35.3 3.8 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.5 15.6 4.4 123.4 71.4 41.5 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.3 7.9 4.9 53.1 50.5 33.6 3.3 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.6 14.2 5.4 93.6 64.9 39.4 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 6.9 19.7 7.4 79.9 58.2 40.6 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 3.0 7.4 4.2 48.0 46.0 30.1 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------