***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 32.6 29.8 74.4 43.7 37.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 27.3 36.6 31.4 75.5 42.3 36.0 30.6 42.1 55.5 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 31.2 44.6 30.7 77.0 45.6 38.8 33.9 48.2 65.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 60.8 52.0 29.7 79.7 51.1 43.5 33.5 50.8 71.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 50.1 40.9 29.2 77.7 49.3 41.3 27.7 41.6 57.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 52.8 48.4 39.9 87.7 54.0 46.4 30.0 44.5 62.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 27.5 37.3 32.1 77.3 43.7 37.3 29.4 42.5 57.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 48.3 62.9 31.8 75.5 44.8 37.9 49.8 69.0 91.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 25.6 36.9 30.5 74.9 47.1 39.4 25.4 40.1 58.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 38.3 51.4 34.6 74.9 44.3 37.8 39.8 57.7 79.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 22.7 32.4 24.4 71.5 45.0 37.3 23.2 36.6 53.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 27.4 41.1 23.6 73.9 47.1 38.2 27.5 44.2 65.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 19.2 30.1 28.5 80.4 50.0 41.2 18.7 30.1 44.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 47.0 61.0 39.3 80.6 45.7 38.6 48.2 65.8 85.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 18.2 30.2 25.6 79.0 51.4 43.7 17.1 29.0 44.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 19.5 28.9 26.6 76.8 48.5 40.4 18.8 30.0 44.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 30.6 39.9 31.6 77.2 43.7 37.5 33.4 44.1 55.5 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 39.9 52.7 43.0 78.5 44.7 38.7 41.9 58.1 76.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 30.9 42.7 31.2 76.1 42.9 36.1 34.5 48.9 65.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 57.6 46.7 44.6 81.6 45.6 40.0 37.1 50.4 65.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 28.7 41.0 28.0 74.3 46.8 39.4 29.6 43.7 60.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 35.2 46.2 30.9 75.6 41.6 35.9 40.0 52.7 66.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 33.2 44.2 32.2 78.4 44.9 37.5 35.3 48.1 62.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 35.6 49.0 38.1 78.1 45.0 38.8 38.1 53.7 71.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 28.9 42.1 33.9 77.4 46.4 39.9 30.5 45.1 63.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 20.1 32.9 23.4 82.2 51.9 41.8 20.6 31.7 45.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 33.2 47.3 34.7 76.6 44.6 38.4 36.3 52.7 71.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 49.4 42.7 27.7 80.2 51.5 43.7 27.9 41.5 57.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 57.7 70.6 44.0 79.3 44.1 38.7 59.7 76.7 95.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 31.2 41.1 31.3 75.6 42.7 36.3 33.6 46.8 61.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------