***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 98 2 0 100 14.6 13.6 15.0 -3.2 5.1 8.2 15.4 16.0 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 13.2 11.8 15.0 -3.1 5.5 8.5 14.4 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 97 3 0 100 15.3 13.9 15.4 -2.9 6.0 9.3 16.5 17.4 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 10.3 8.5 12.9 -3.0 4.9 8.7 11.7 12.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 92 8 0 100 12.5 11.3 13.7 -2.7 6.7 10.9 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 11.6 10.6 11.2 -2.2 7.2 13.6 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 98 2 0 100 13.6 12.3 15.1 -3.1 5.7 8.2 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 6.4 5.0 11.0 -2.4 5.9 11.3 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 13.5 12.0 13.6 -2.7 4.5 10.2 14.5 15.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 91 9 0 100 13.4 12.1 12.0 -2.5 5.2 10.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 13.4 12.2 13.3 -2.5 5.6 10.7 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 11.5 10.5 12.0 -2.5 5.9 11.1 12.3 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 91 9 0 100 12.9 11.9 12.3 -2.3 6.7 13.7 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 14.2 12.8 13.4 -2.7 4.7 10.9 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 14.7 13.0 14.5 -3.0 3.2 6.7 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 13.9 12.8 12.9 -2.3 6.8 12.4 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 14.2 13.2 14.9 -2.9 6.8 9.8 15.2 16.1 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 91 9 0 100 12.0 10.8 11.5 -2.4 6.0 11.5 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 97 3 0 100 13.5 12.4 15.1 -3.0 5.9 9.1 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 8.1 7.2 9.8 -2.2 7.7 12.7 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 13.2 11.7 14.7 -2.9 5.0 9.3 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 95 5 0 100 13.4 12.5 15.3 -2.7 7.0 10.5 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 94 6 0 100 13.4 12.5 15.2 -2.7 6.5 10.4 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 91 9 0 100 13.8 12.6 13.6 -2.5 6.1 11.4 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 13.5 12.2 14.1 -3.2 5.3 8.1 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 12.7 11.8 11.5 -2.2 8.7 15.3 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 12.8 11.2 14.5 -3.2 5.2 8.0 14.1 15.2 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 12.7 11.3 13.4 -2.9 4.5 8.8 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 10.4 9.0 10.8 -2.3 6.7 12.2 11.5 12.5 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 13.7 12.4 15.2 -3.1 5.5 8.3 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------