***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 88 12 100 15.4 15.3 18.0 0.0 50.9 50.6 14.4 15.3 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 15.3 15.4 18.1 0.3 55.6 55.0 14.0 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 17.2 17.1 18.3 0.1 51.6 51.4 16.1 17.0 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 12.7 11.9 15.4 -0.3 43.2 44.2 11.3 12.3 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.2 13.6 15.6 -0.3 44.1 44.9 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.1 13.0 -0.5 36.8 39.1 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 15.6 15.7 18.3 0.3 55.1 54.6 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.6 13.0 -0.3 42.7 43.8 7.2 8.0 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.3 14.9 15.9 -0.1 47.3 47.6 14.2 15.0 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.7 14.1 -0.2 45.5 46.1 14.1 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.4 15.1 -0.3 42.2 43.5 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.3 14.0 -0.3 42.8 44.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 13.0 13.4 13.7 -0.5 38.0 40.6 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 15.9 15.7 15.8 0.0 49.8 50.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.2 17.1 -0.3 43.4 44.3 15.7 16.4 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 15.6 14.7 14.5 -0.4 39.3 41.4 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 16.0 16.4 18.2 0.5 60.5 59.4 14.9 15.8 16.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.2 13.5 -0.1 47.5 48.0 12.5 13.3 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 87 13 100 15.4 15.4 18.1 0.2 55.0 54.6 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.8 11.1 -0.3 41.6 43.0 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 15.1 14.7 17.1 -0.2 46.1 46.5 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 15.2 15.5 18.2 0.5 59.6 58.7 14.1 15.0 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 14.9 15.0 18.0 0.3 55.6 55.2 13.8 14.7 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 15.6 15.4 15.7 0.0 50.5 50.5 14.5 15.4 16.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 15.2 14.8 16.7 -0.1 47.4 47.6 14.0 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.3 13.1 -0.5 38.2 40.4 13.0 13.7 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 87 13 100 15.0 14.7 17.3 0.0 49.4 49.2 13.7 14.7 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.5 15.7 -0.5 38.9 40.6 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 12.3 11.7 12.6 -0.2 45.4 46.1 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 15.7 15.7 18.3 0.2 53.8 53.5 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------