***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.3 18.0 -0.5 35.2 37.8 15.2 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 15.6 15.1 18.1 -0.2 42.4 44.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.1 18.3 -0.3 39.7 41.8 16.9 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 12.1 12.2 15.5 -0.7 27.8 30.8 12.4 13.0 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 13.4 13.4 15.6 -0.6 29.5 32.7 13.5 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.2 12.5 13.5 -0.5 30.7 34.3 12.5 13.0 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.5 18.2 -0.3 40.8 42.9 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.8 7.8 13.2 -0.5 30.0 33.8 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.6 15.8 -0.5 30.2 33.6 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 14.5 14.5 14.1 -0.5 30.1 33.9 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 15.1 14.3 15.1 -0.5 30.1 33.6 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 12.3 12.3 14.1 -0.6 29.2 33.0 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 13.5 13.4 13.7 -0.6 25.1 29.9 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 15.2 15.3 15.7 -0.4 33.2 36.4 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 15.8 15.8 17.0 -0.6 27.5 30.4 16.0 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 14.8 14.8 14.6 -0.6 28.7 32.6 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.2 18.1 -0.1 47.6 48.7 15.8 16.3 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.9 13.4 -0.4 32.2 35.9 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.7 15.3 18.2 -0.2 43.7 45.6 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.8 11.2 -0.5 29.0 33.1 9.0 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 14.4 14.5 17.1 -0.5 31.6 34.6 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.2 18.1 0.0 48.9 49.7 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.1 14.8 18.0 -0.1 45.0 46.7 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.1 15.7 -0.4 36.1 38.8 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 14.3 14.4 16.6 -0.6 29.4 32.4 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 13.5 13.5 13.3 -0.5 29.7 33.7 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 14.2 14.4 17.2 -0.5 32.6 35.2 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 13.4 13.4 15.8 -0.7 26.1 29.4 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.0 12.7 -0.5 31.2 35.1 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.5 18.3 -0.3 40.6 42.9 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------