***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-08.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 26.8 26.5 26.2 -2.7 15.6 17.2 27.9 28.9 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 89 11 0 100 26.1 26.2 26.9 -2.4 19.7 21.1 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 25.9 25.8 26.4 -2.7 16.9 18.4 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 97 3 0 100 18.3 17.6 22.9 -3.2 12.4 14.1 20.1 21.7 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 95 5 0 100 26.2 25.7 24.1 -3.1 13.9 15.4 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 24.8 24.2 21.6 -2.7 15.0 17.7 26.2 27.7 29.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 25.8 25.9 26.8 -2.4 19.9 21.6 27.0 28.2 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 14.1 13.7 21.9 -2.9 14.9 16.7 15.6 16.9 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 93 7 0 100 25.7 25.5 25.2 -2.8 16.1 17.6 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 93 7 0 100 25.6 25.3 23.0 -2.9 15.3 16.9 27.1 28.5 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 25.8 25.4 24.4 -3.0 14.7 16.3 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 25.0 24.7 23.2 -2.8 15.4 17.4 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 26.1 25.7 23.9 -2.7 15.7 17.9 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 89 11 0 100 25.8 25.9 25.3 -2.3 19.7 21.2 26.9 28.1 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 26.6 26.1 25.7 -2.9 13.1 14.7 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 90 10 0 100 26.7 26.3 23.9 -2.8 15.4 17.3 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 25.5 25.7 26.8 -2.0 22.9 24.5 26.5 27.6 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 24.9 24.7 22.3 -2.7 17.0 18.6 26.2 27.6 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 88 12 0 100 25.6 25.7 26.9 -2.4 19.6 21.0 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 88 12 0 100 20.3 19.8 20.2 -2.7 15.5 17.7 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 94 6 0 100 25.9 25.6 26.0 -2.9 15.7 17.2 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 26.0 26.2 26.8 -2.0 23.0 24.7 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 25.9 26.0 26.8 -2.2 21.3 22.6 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 90 10 0 100 25.4 25.4 24.9 -2.6 17.8 19.4 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 25.8 25.4 24.8 -3.0 13.8 15.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 25.8 25.3 22.5 -2.7 15.8 18.5 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 25.7 25.4 25.6 -2.8 15.0 16.6 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 95 5 0 100 26.5 25.9 24.0 -3.0 13.0 14.8 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 89 11 0 100 20.0 19.7 21.6 -2.7 16.3 18.1 21.4 22.8 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 25.9 25.9 26.8 -2.5 18.4 19.9 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------