***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.5 30.2 0.5 56.6 55.1 27.5 29.0 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.5 29.9 30.7 0.9 62.1 59.0 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.8 30.7 0.7 59.2 57.0 27.4 29.0 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.9 22.1 27.8 -0.2 47.8 48.1 20.8 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.3 29.5 28.0 -0.2 47.5 47.9 28.1 29.7 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 28.7 28.0 25.3 -0.2 46.7 47.0 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.8 30.6 0.8 60.5 57.8 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.7 16.8 25.9 -0.4 44.7 45.3 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.6 29.1 28.4 0.1 50.7 50.5 27.5 29.0 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.3 28.6 26.8 -0.1 48.4 48.4 27.3 28.8 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.0 27.6 -0.2 47.7 47.8 27.6 29.2 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.8 27.9 27.3 -0.3 45.9 46.2 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 30.1 29.0 26.4 -0.4 44.3 44.9 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.1 28.0 0.3 54.4 53.6 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 30.7 30.4 29.0 0.1 52.0 51.5 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 30.8 30.0 27.3 -0.2 47.2 47.3 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.9 29.4 30.6 0.9 62.7 59.5 26.8 28.3 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.4 28.0 26.4 0.0 50.4 50.0 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.1 29.6 30.8 1.0 63.2 59.8 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.0 22.9 23.3 -0.5 42.4 43.5 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.2 29.4 0.1 51.9 51.5 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.4 30.1 30.6 1.1 64.9 61.1 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.3 29.7 30.6 1.0 63.0 59.7 27.1 28.6 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.0 28.8 28.2 0.3 54.4 53.3 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.9 29.4 28.2 0.0 50.3 50.2 27.8 29.3 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 29.6 29.3 27.2 0.0 50.7 50.1 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.1 29.2 0.3 54.6 53.6 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.7 30.0 28.1 -0.1 48.0 48.2 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.7 23.0 25.1 -0.1 47.9 48.1 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.6 30.6 0.8 60.4 57.8 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------