***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 30.3 30.2 31.4 1.2 67.2 63.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 30.5 30.6 31.9 1.6 71.6 67.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 30.5 30.4 31.9 1.5 70.5 65.9 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 23.1 23.2 29.0 0.5 58.3 57.1 21.1 22.5 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 30.1 30.1 29.1 0.5 57.3 56.4 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.7 26.3 0.3 55.5 54.5 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 30.1 30.1 31.7 1.4 69.7 65.3 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.1 27.0 0.2 54.0 53.7 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 30.6 30.0 29.5 0.8 61.5 59.5 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.5 27.9 0.5 58.1 56.8 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.7 28.8 0.5 57.2 56.0 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.9 28.5 0.4 55.8 55.0 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 29.9 29.6 27.6 0.1 52.3 52.4 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 30.1 29.8 29.1 1.0 65.3 62.4 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.5 31.2 30.3 0.9 64.9 61.9 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.7 30.7 28.5 0.4 56.7 55.6 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 29.8 29.9 31.7 1.6 71.8 66.9 27.2 28.3 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.8 27.4 0.7 60.0 58.2 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 30.1 30.2 32.1 1.7 73.5 68.5 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 24.4 23.9 24.3 0.0 49.8 50.6 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 30.7 30.1 30.5 0.8 62.6 60.3 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 30.3 30.6 31.7 1.8 74.7 69.3 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 30.2 30.4 31.9 1.8 74.2 69.0 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 30.0 29.6 29.3 1.0 65.7 62.3 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.8 30.0 29.3 0.6 59.8 58.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.7 29.9 28.3 0.5 59.1 57.0 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 30.0 29.7 30.3 1.0 64.3 61.3 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.6 30.9 29.4 0.6 59.8 58.0 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.9 26.1 0.4 56.3 55.6 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 30.2 30.2 31.8 1.5 70.5 66.0 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------