***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.5 29.1 -0.2 45.0 46.3 28.1 28.7 29.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 28.8 28.7 29.7 0.2 53.4 53.3 27.8 28.6 29.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.4 29.5 -0.1 47.8 48.6 27.8 28.5 29.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.0 26.3 -0.9 31.7 34.1 21.0 21.9 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.3 26.9 -0.9 32.2 34.6 28.3 29.2 29.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 26.9 26.9 24.2 -0.8 30.6 33.0 27.1 27.8 28.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 28.7 28.5 29.6 0.1 51.5 51.8 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 16.1 16.2 24.7 -1.0 29.0 31.7 16.3 17.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.0 27.5 -0.6 37.4 39.4 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 27.4 27.6 25.7 -0.8 33.4 35.6 27.6 28.4 29.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 29.1 27.8 26.8 -0.9 31.9 34.3 27.9 28.7 29.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 27.0 27.0 26.1 -0.9 31.1 33.7 27.1 27.9 28.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 28.1 28.1 25.8 -0.9 30.2 32.7 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.0 27.3 -0.2 44.4 45.6 27.5 28.2 28.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 30.0 29.1 28.2 -0.6 36.6 38.7 28.9 29.7 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 30.1 28.8 26.4 -0.8 32.3 34.7 28.9 29.7 30.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 28.3 28.3 29.6 0.3 56.9 56.1 27.2 28.0 28.7 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 26.6 27.0 25.1 -0.6 36.1 38.3 26.8 27.5 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 28.4 28.3 29.7 0.2 54.6 54.3 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 22.2 22.2 22.4 -1.0 26.7 29.8 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 29.0 28.2 28.5 -0.5 38.7 40.7 27.9 28.7 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.9 29.5 0.4 60.0 58.3 27.7 28.4 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 28.6 28.5 29.6 0.3 55.8 55.0 27.5 28.3 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 27.1 27.6 27.3 -0.4 42.0 43.6 27.2 28.0 28.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.2 27.3 -0.7 36.4 38.5 28.0 28.9 29.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 27.8 28.1 25.7 -0.7 34.7 36.7 28.0 28.7 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.0 28.2 -0.4 42.1 43.7 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.0 28.9 26.9 -0.9 32.2 34.6 28.9 29.7 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 21.9 22.1 24.0 -0.8 32.7 35.3 22.1 22.9 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.4 29.6 0.0 50.7 51.2 27.6 28.3 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------