***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.07.2018.-15.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.2 11.4 12.3 90.2 60.8 45.1 3.5 7.5 13.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.9 11.0 11.3 93.6 61.7 44.1 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.2 13.9 13.8 99.4 63.3 48.3 3.5 8.3 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 14.5 19.9 13.8 110.3 66.8 54.6 4.8 10.6 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 5.6 13.3 10.2 76.7 55.1 39.2 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.1 13.4 88.7 58.3 51.1 4.1 9.4 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 3.2 9.7 12.0 99.7 64.0 44.6 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 25.0 30.7 15.3 110.2 67.0 52.2 11.5 19.5 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.3 16.3 13.1 95.2 62.8 50.1 5.1 10.3 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.9 21.8 14.6 97.4 63.2 49.5 6.9 13.8 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.8 10.8 11.0 81.0 54.3 41.3 4.5 9.3 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.7 20.1 13.0 107.4 65.2 50.3 7.3 12.9 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.3 12.6 11.4 93.0 62.2 48.7 4.6 8.6 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.9 15.4 15.8 84.8 58.3 45.2 6.3 11.9 19.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 7.7 10.3 11.4 106.2 66.5 54.9 2.7 5.8 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.8 15.4 13.3 113.7 67.2 56.0 5.0 9.2 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.9 10.1 11.0 86.4 59.8 42.5 4.0 7.4 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.7 21.5 18.6 106.0 65.7 53.7 7.7 13.6 21.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.9 13.6 11.6 92.6 61.4 44.8 5.0 9.5 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.0 21.8 19.4 119.2 69.8 56.0 7.3 12.7 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 12.0 15.7 14.2 106.8 66.4 53.9 5.0 9.6 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.7 14.2 11.2 84.7 59.2 44.1 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.7 12.8 92.9 61.2 46.4 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.0 16.5 16.6 97.4 62.6 50.1 6.4 11.4 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.5 9.5 11.2 68.7 50.9 37.8 4.3 9.1 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.0 12.0 105.1 63.8 50.7 4.3 7.1 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.0 12.8 80.7 55.8 42.7 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.8 12.1 12.0 109.4 67.1 54.5 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.0 25.7 20.9 111.6 67.2 54.7 11.2 17.3 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.3 14.4 12.2 100.9 64.3 47.1 3.8 8.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------