***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.07.2018.-22.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.4 10.8 8.9 86.5 61.6 42.9 3.1 6.9 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.4 11.0 8.7 91.2 62.7 40.2 3.7 7.3 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.3 9.5 9.1 87.2 61.8 43.0 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.4 14.9 9.2 109.0 67.8 49.2 2.9 7.1 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.5 10.3 8.0 95.2 64.0 41.8 2.6 5.8 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.9 12.1 10.6 105.5 67.0 50.1 2.5 5.9 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.4 9.4 9.0 99.1 65.0 41.4 2.6 5.5 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 3.9 14.6 11.2 114.4 69.2 48.4 3.9 7.8 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 1.9 8.1 9.6 100.7 65.8 46.8 1.8 4.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 2.3 9.5 11.4 103.8 66.5 46.4 2.4 5.1 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.0 9.4 7.7 102.0 66.1 44.8 2.0 4.8 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.9 14.1 8.7 114.1 69.3 48.7 2.8 6.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.6 9.4 9.6 122.5 71.7 50.2 1.5 3.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 3.5 12.4 12.2 89.9 62.1 44.2 3.4 7.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 2.5 9.1 6.6 96.0 64.4 44.9 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 1.9 7.9 8.3 110.7 68.6 49.3 1.8 4.0 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.2 7.2 8.6 94.1 63.6 40.1 2.6 4.8 7.7 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.0 10.6 13.9 101.6 66.0 49.4 2.8 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 3.3 10.4 8.6 85.6 61.0 40.4 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.4 13.8 107.9 67.1 51.6 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 1.9 7.7 9.5 99.4 65.5 46.2 2.0 4.3 7.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.6 8.2 9.5 92.7 63.3 42.5 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 3.0 8.5 8.8 83.9 61.0 42.3 3.2 6.1 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 3.3 10.6 12.4 98.6 65.4 48.2 3.1 6.2 10.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.7 10.9 9.2 89.5 62.0 42.3 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.7 11.3 8.3 138.7 75.3 49.3 1.8 4.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.9 13.2 9.5 87.4 61.7 42.9 3.3 7.9 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.9 12.0 7.8 100.4 65.4 45.6 2.8 6.3 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 15.2 14.5 101.3 65.4 51.1 5.1 9.5 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.9 9.2 8.9 90.0 62.4 40.6 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------