***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.3 16.8 9.8 105.4 67.6 45.5 3.0 7.6 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 3.1 13.8 9.9 114.7 70.2 47.7 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.1 17.7 10.3 113.9 69.7 47.7 2.7 7.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 3.7 15.0 8.3 91.2 63.3 44.1 3.9 8.7 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 2.6 9.9 7.6 90.3 63.2 40.5 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.9 9.0 85.3 61.2 44.7 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.8 16.1 9.2 108.1 68.5 45.8 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 6.7 20.8 10.4 103.1 66.2 50.4 5.7 11.7 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.8 12.6 9.3 100.2 66.4 44.9 2.3 6.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.6 17.0 11.0 100.1 65.7 47.5 3.5 8.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.9 10.7 7.0 92.3 63.6 43.4 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.2 12.1 7.2 93.6 63.5 47.2 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.9 6.9 84.7 61.3 45.6 2.4 5.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.9 21.1 12.1 100.1 66.2 46.5 4.6 10.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 2.2 8.4 6.1 83.1 61.2 39.9 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.4 6.9 6.7 86.9 61.8 44.3 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.1 20.2 9.6 114.5 70.0 47.8 4.7 10.0 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.1 21.5 14.0 107.6 67.7 51.5 4.6 10.3 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 4.1 19.6 10.1 115.9 70.4 47.8 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 14.1 14.5 108.4 67.4 54.2 4.2 8.0 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.8 14.7 9.3 102.7 67.0 44.1 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.6 20.1 9.5 107.1 67.9 47.6 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.4 18.2 10.3 116.7 70.5 46.5 3.4 8.0 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.5 19.0 11.9 105.2 67.4 48.3 3.8 9.0 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.0 14.4 9.1 91.9 63.8 42.9 3.8 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.3 11.7 5.8 92.3 63.3 48.0 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.8 14.6 10.0 99.8 66.1 45.4 3.3 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 3.3 12.4 7.1 84.6 61.3 40.6 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.3 27.7 15.0 111.5 68.5 53.0 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.0 17.8 10.1 113.7 69.8 47.9 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------