***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.06.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 27.0 48.5 39.2 86.8 51.6 43.3 30.1 46.6 67.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 29.1 45.1 36.3 90.8 54.1 43.7 30.6 42.1 55.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 32.9 54.5 42.4 95.5 56.3 46.9 33.9 48.2 65.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 33.3 60.2 41.5 97.2 58.0 49.4 33.5 50.8 71.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 26.4 43.6 37.4 87.1 52.4 44.0 27.7 41.6 57.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 52.4 46.3 43.9 87.7 51.9 48.3 30.0 44.5 62.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 29.0 48.4 37.4 94.8 56.5 44.9 29.4 42.5 57.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 79.7 84.1 52.8 105.0 61.3 53.6 49.8 69.0 91.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 24.0 49.0 45.8 98.6 58.6 49.1 25.4 40.1 58.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 39.0 67.5 53.4 98.5 57.8 50.2 39.8 57.7 79.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 23.7 40.6 37.9 91.9 54.2 47.1 23.2 36.6 53.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 54.9 57.7 40.8 103.2 60.7 52.6 27.5 44.2 65.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 19.0 36.0 38.3 94.7 57.0 49.1 18.7 30.1 44.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 47.7 67.8 53.6 89.9 51.8 44.8 48.2 65.8 85.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 36.8 35.8 32.4 93.8 58.0 49.5 17.1 29.0 44.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 37.1 37.9 39.0 100.1 59.5 51.8 18.8 30.0 44.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 32.9 47.5 36.5 91.8 55.3 43.0 33.4 44.1 55.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 66.8 68.4 63.8 101.8 59.4 51.7 41.9 58.1 76.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 33.7 52.2 37.2 90.0 53.3 44.2 34.5 48.9 65.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 57.0 61.2 64.9 106.5 62.1 54.9 37.1 50.4 65.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 28.5 54.1 45.0 101.3 60.1 49.8 29.6 43.7 60.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 38.5 54.9 37.3 89.1 52.9 42.9 40.0 52.7 66.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 55.5 51.7 40.9 92.1 54.1 45.9 35.3 48.1 62.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 62.5 61.0 54.6 97.8 57.1 48.6 38.1 53.7 71.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 27.2 43.4 39.3 81.2 48.0 40.6 30.5 45.1 63.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 21.1 38.7 33.2 98.8 59.1 51.3 20.6 31.7 45.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 32.6 51.9 41.1 83.9 49.4 42.1 36.3 52.7 71.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 28.2 49.2 37.7 96.4 58.2 49.4 27.9 41.5 57.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 85.2 87.6 66.9 103.0 59.9 52.4 59.7 76.7 95.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 33.2 50.5 37.9 92.0 54.5 45.2 33.6 46.8 61.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------