***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 16.1 15.7 17.8 -0.2 46.7 47.2 15.2 15.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 15.4 14.9 17.6 -0.2 45.4 46.0 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 17.5 17.0 17.9 -0.2 44.6 45.4 16.3 17.3 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.1 11.9 15.2 -0.4 40.1 41.1 11.4 12.6 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.5 13.5 15.6 -0.5 37.3 38.7 13.2 14.2 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 11.9 12.1 12.6 -0.7 31.4 33.2 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 15.6 15.4 17.9 0.0 49.5 49.7 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.9 7.1 12.6 -0.7 30.8 32.7 7.2 8.2 9.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.0 16.0 -0.2 44.8 45.3 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.5 14.4 13.8 -0.6 34.9 36.4 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.5 15.2 -0.4 39.6 40.6 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.4 14.0 -0.4 38.5 39.6 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.4 13.5 13.8 -0.7 30.5 32.4 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.1 15.5 -0.5 37.5 38.8 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 16.8 16.8 17.4 0.2 55.5 54.5 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 15.9 14.9 14.6 -0.5 37.2 38.6 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 16.1 15.6 17.3 -0.2 45.1 45.7 15.0 15.9 16.6 29 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 12.4 12.5 12.9 -0.9 28.6 30.7 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 15.4 15.1 17.7 -0.1 48.6 48.9 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 8.3 8.3 10.9 -1.0 24.6 26.9 8.7 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 15.3 14.6 17.0 -0.3 42.1 43.0 14.1 15.0 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.2 14.7 17.4 -0.3 43.6 44.3 14.2 14.9 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 14.9 14.9 17.9 0.2 55.0 54.7 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 15.8 14.9 15.4 -0.5 37.2 38.5 14.6 15.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.5 14.7 16.6 -0.5 40.0 41.3 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 13.0 13.0 12.7 -0.9 27.6 29.8 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 15.3 14.6 17.1 -0.3 43.5 44.5 13.9 15.0 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 14.6 14.1 15.8 -0.2 45.5 45.8 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 10.7 10.7 12.0 -1.0 24.7 26.8 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 87 13 100 15.8 15.4 17.9 -0.1 47.5 48.0 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------