***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.5 18.7 1.1 70.9 63.9 14.4 15.3 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.1 18.2 0.8 65.0 59.6 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.4 18.2 18.8 1.0 69.6 63.0 16.2 17.1 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 12.8 13.7 16.4 1.0 69.8 63.6 11.5 12.5 13.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.3 14.9 16.4 0.8 67.0 61.5 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.6 13.9 0.7 66.0 61.5 12.2 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.6 18.5 1.0 68.5 62.6 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.9 13.8 0.7 65.9 61.5 7.4 8.2 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.4 16.1 16.6 0.9 69.6 63.3 14.3 15.1 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.8 14.7 0.7 65.4 60.7 14.3 15.1 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 15.7 15.8 16.0 0.9 70.3 64.6 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.8 14.9 0.9 70.5 65.0 12.1 12.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.4 14.5 14.3 0.4 59.1 56.8 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.2 16.3 15.9 0.4 59.7 56.8 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 17.4 17.8 18.2 1.2 76.0 67.5 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.1 15.3 0.7 66.3 61.9 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.8 17.9 0.7 63.8 58.6 15.1 16.0 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.8 13.9 13.7 0.4 58.4 55.8 12.6 13.5 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.3 18.3 0.9 67.8 61.6 14.4 15.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.6 9.6 11.6 0.3 56.9 55.5 8.5 9.3 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.9 17.8 0.8 67.2 61.5 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.8 17.8 0.6 62.8 57.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 15.8 16.1 18.5 1.2 74.0 66.2 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.1 16.0 0.5 62.2 57.8 14.6 15.4 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.4 16.1 17.4 0.9 67.4 61.6 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 14.1 14.5 14.0 0.7 65.1 60.5 13.2 13.9 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.3 16.0 17.9 0.9 68.3 62.0 13.8 14.9 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.5 15.3 16.8 1.0 71.5 64.6 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.2 12.4 12.9 0.3 56.5 54.7 11.3 12.1 12.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 15.9 16.7 18.6 1.0 68.6 62.3 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------