***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 16.6 17.1 20.0 1.7 79.8 72.6 15.1 15.8 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.2 19.8 1.6 79.7 72.7 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.8 19.4 20.2 1.7 81.2 73.8 17.1 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 14.8 15.5 17.7 1.7 83.0 74.7 12.6 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.6 17.3 1.4 79.9 73.1 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 14.3 14.3 15.1 0.9 71.8 66.7 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 17.1 17.6 20.1 1.8 81.7 74.4 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 9.9 10.0 14.8 1.0 73.2 68.3 8.4 9.1 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.7 17.4 1.3 78.0 71.7 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 16.1 16.3 15.7 1.1 73.8 68.6 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 16.0 16.4 16.8 1.4 79.8 72.9 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 14.2 14.4 15.6 1.1 75.1 69.7 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.8 15.0 14.5 0.6 63.5 60.9 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 17.0 17.3 17.1 1.2 75.2 69.7 15.6 16.2 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 18.0 18.7 19.0 1.6 83.6 74.6 16.2 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.8 15.9 1.1 74.6 68.9 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 17.5 17.8 19.6 1.6 78.8 71.8 16.0 16.7 17.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 14.8 14.9 14.6 0.8 69.8 65.6 13.2 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 16.7 17.2 19.9 1.7 80.8 73.5 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 10.8 10.6 12.1 0.5 63.0 61.0 9.4 10.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.5 18.8 1.4 77.5 71.2 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 16.3 16.6 19.3 1.5 78.3 71.0 14.9 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 16.2 16.7 19.7 1.8 83.0 75.3 14.7 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 16.8 17.1 16.9 1.2 75.6 69.9 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.6 18.3 1.4 76.9 70.4 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.3 14.6 0.8 69.1 64.8 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.9 19.1 1.6 78.6 71.7 14.4 15.3 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 15.5 16.0 17.9 1.6 82.1 73.7 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 13.9 13.9 13.9 0.7 68.0 64.3 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 17.0 17.5 20.1 1.7 80.9 73.5 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------