***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 16.3 16.5 18.8 0.9 76.6 71.8 15.2 15.7 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.4 18.5 0.7 73.3 69.1 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 18.2 18.5 19.0 0.8 76.4 71.2 16.9 17.5 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 13.7 14.0 16.5 0.8 77.8 72.2 12.4 13.0 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 14.7 14.8 16.5 0.7 73.4 68.8 13.4 14.0 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.5 13.4 14.0 0.3 64.3 61.3 12.6 13.0 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.7 18.8 0.9 76.5 71.9 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.0 8.9 13.8 0.4 67.0 64.1 7.9 8.4 8.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 15.9 16.1 16.6 0.7 75.9 70.9 14.7 15.3 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 15.7 15.7 14.8 0.5 67.9 64.6 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 15.6 15.8 16.0 0.7 76.5 71.6 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 13.6 13.7 14.9 0.6 73.5 69.4 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.3 14.1 0.1 54.3 54.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.3 16.1 0.4 64.1 60.8 15.3 15.9 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 17.3 17.8 18.2 1.0 83.4 76.0 16.1 16.6 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.1 16.1 15.3 0.5 69.6 65.6 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 16.8 17.0 18.3 0.7 71.2 67.1 15.8 16.3 16.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.8 13.7 0.2 57.5 56.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 16.2 16.4 18.7 0.9 76.4 71.4 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.5 11.5 0.0 49.7 50.4 8.9 9.5 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 15.7 15.9 17.9 0.7 73.1 68.7 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 15.8 15.8 18.2 0.6 70.4 65.9 14.6 15.2 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 15.6 16.0 18.7 1.1 82.2 75.7 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.1 16.1 0.4 66.3 62.7 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.8 15.9 17.4 0.7 71.7 67.7 14.6 15.1 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.4 13.8 0.3 61.8 59.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 16.0 16.1 18.1 0.8 73.6 69.3 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 14.9 15.2 16.9 0.8 78.6 72.3 13.7 14.2 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.7 13.0 0.1 53.1 52.9 12.0 12.6 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 16.5 16.7 18.9 0.9 76.2 71.5 15.2 15.8 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------