***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.07.2017.-16.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 29.8 30.8 30.9 3.0 84.1 76.7 26.9 28.1 29.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 29.5 30.4 30.6 2.7 81.6 74.5 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 29.6 30.5 31.0 2.9 82.5 75.4 26.8 28.0 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 22.9 24.2 28.9 3.0 85.0 76.7 19.8 21.1 22.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 30.1 30.9 29.2 2.6 80.8 73.5 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 28.6 28.9 26.0 1.8 74.0 68.5 26.0 27.2 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 29.5 30.4 30.5 2.6 81.2 74.4 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 17.7 18.3 26.8 2.3 77.7 71.5 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 29.6 30.7 29.9 2.9 83.1 75.4 26.7 28.0 29.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 29.1 29.8 27.9 2.5 79.1 72.3 26.4 27.6 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 29.5 30.4 29.3 2.7 81.3 73.9 26.6 27.8 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 28.8 29.5 28.3 2.5 80.3 73.5 26.0 27.1 28.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 29.7 30.1 27.9 2.0 75.3 69.6 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 28.9 29.5 28.6 2.2 76.5 69.9 26.7 27.7 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 30.8 31.9 30.7 2.9 84.8 76.4 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 30.6 31.3 28.6 2.5 79.5 72.7 27.7 29.0 30.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 29.1 29.9 30.2 2.6 80.1 73.1 26.6 27.7 28.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 28.1 28.6 26.5 2.0 74.1 68.2 25.6 26.8 27.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 29.1 30.0 30.8 2.9 82.9 75.5 26.5 27.6 28.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 23.8 24.0 24.0 1.6 70.3 66.1 21.3 22.5 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 29.6 30.5 30.5 2.7 80.8 73.7 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 29.3 30.0 29.7 2.3 77.6 70.7 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 29.3 30.4 31.1 3.3 85.7 77.6 26.7 27.8 28.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 28.7 29.4 28.8 2.4 77.9 71.0 26.3 27.4 28.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 29.9 30.8 29.4 2.8 82.2 74.6 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 29.4 30.1 27.9 2.5 81.0 73.8 27.0 28.0 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 29.4 30.3 30.0 2.8 83.1 75.7 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 24 76 100 30.8 31.9 29.4 2.8 83.1 75.0 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 23.5 23.7 25.3 1.6 70.8 65.8 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 29.4 30.4 30.8 2.8 82.2 75.2 26.7 27.9 29.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------