***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 31.0 31.3 30.7 1.8 73.3 66.9 27.7 29.2 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.3 30.6 1.8 73.4 67.2 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 31.0 31.4 31.0 1.8 73.3 66.4 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 24.2 24.9 29.3 2.0 76.5 69.4 21.1 22.5 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.5 31.9 29.1 1.6 70.9 65.0 28.4 30.0 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.5 26.0 1.0 64.4 60.5 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 30.8 31.1 30.6 1.7 73.1 67.3 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.0 19.0 27.2 1.4 68.8 63.3 16.2 17.5 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 30.9 31.3 29.3 1.7 71.8 65.4 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 29.6 30.7 27.9 1.5 69.6 63.7 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 31.1 31.5 28.9 1.7 72.5 66.2 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 30.1 30.4 28.6 1.6 70.9 65.2 27.1 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.3 31.0 27.3 1.1 64.1 60.3 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 29.5 30.4 28.3 1.3 67.0 61.0 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 32.1 32.7 30.2 2.1 78.5 71.6 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 32.1 32.4 28.5 1.6 70.8 65.4 29.1 30.5 31.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 30.3 30.4 30.3 1.6 71.8 65.8 27.1 28.5 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.7 29.4 26.9 1.2 65.1 60.2 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 30.4 30.9 30.8 1.8 74.2 67.3 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.7 24.2 0.8 60.0 56.8 22.4 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.8 31.0 30.1 1.5 70.0 64.1 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 30.8 30.7 29.8 1.4 69.2 63.5 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 30.6 31.2 30.8 1.9 75.3 67.4 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 29.2 30.3 28.6 1.4 68.7 62.6 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 31.2 31.5 29.0 1.6 71.6 65.4 28.1 29.6 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 30.9 31.2 28.3 1.7 72.7 67.0 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 30.6 30.9 29.8 1.7 72.7 66.4 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 31.9 32.5 29.5 1.9 76.1 69.5 29.1 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.0 24.4 25.5 0.8 60.3 56.8 22.1 23.5 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 30.7 31.1 30.7 1.8 73.4 67.2 27.4 29.0 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------