***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 30.5 31.7 32.5 3.0 86.0 79.1 27.8 28.9 30.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 30.6 31.6 32.2 2.8 84.5 77.4 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 30.6 31.8 32.7 3.0 85.0 77.9 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 24.6 26.1 30.8 3.0 86.2 78.8 20.9 22.4 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 31.6 32.6 30.7 2.7 82.8 76.5 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.2 27.3 1.7 73.8 69.1 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 30.3 31.4 32.3 2.9 85.2 78.2 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 19.4 19.9 28.5 2.2 77.9 72.7 16.3 17.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 30.9 32.1 31.0 2.8 83.6 77.2 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 30.8 31.6 29.4 2.5 80.3 74.4 27.1 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 31.2 32.2 30.4 2.7 82.6 76.3 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 30.4 31.0 29.9 2.3 79.1 73.7 26.8 28.3 29.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 31.2 31.3 28.7 1.7 72.7 68.8 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 30.2 31.0 29.9 2.4 80.3 73.6 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 32.0 33.4 31.6 2.9 87.7 80.0 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 32.3 33.0 29.9 2.4 79.9 74.3 28.5 30.1 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 30.0 30.9 31.9 2.7 83.8 76.7 27.0 28.2 29.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 29.6 30.0 28.4 2.2 76.2 71.0 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 30.1 31.1 32.4 2.9 85.0 77.5 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 25.4 25.4 25.4 1.5 69.3 65.9 22.3 23.7 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 30.9 32.0 31.8 2.7 82.9 76.5 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 30.3 31.1 31.5 2.5 81.9 74.8 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 30.2 31.4 32.4 3.1 86.1 78.1 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 30.1 30.8 30.1 2.5 80.3 74.0 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 31.1 32.3 30.8 2.8 84.4 77.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 30.9 31.4 29.4 2.1 77.3 72.2 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 30.4 31.6 31.5 3.0 86.0 79.0 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 32.0 33.2 30.9 2.8 85.2 78.1 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 24.9 25.1 27.0 1.7 72.1 67.8 21.8 23.2 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 30.3 31.5 32.3 2.9 84.9 77.8 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------