***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.07.2017.-09.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 3.9 11.5 9.2 78.6 55.9 38.6 3.9 9.0 17.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 3.5 8.0 6.8 60.3 47.6 30.5 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 4.4 11.8 8.4 76.5 56.0 35.5 4.8 9.7 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.9 18.6 16.9 152.6 78.1 57.2 3.4 6.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 4.0 17.1 13.5 139.1 74.5 54.3 3.6 7.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 6.8 12.8 18.7 160.9 79.7 59.0 2.7 5.1 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 5.2 10.2 6.7 58.2 46.6 31.0 6.2 11.4 18.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.4 16.3 12.6 91.4 60.0 45.3 7.9 12.8 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.7 13.8 11.3 104.4 65.0 45.5 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 5.4 15.9 13.0 94.3 60.7 43.7 5.8 11.1 18.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.5 15.4 13.9 151.2 76.4 52.9 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.9 12.1 11.5 113.7 66.9 49.5 3.5 7.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.6 12.5 19.1 184.8 82.8 59.1 2.6 4.6 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 3.6 11.7 10.5 71.7 52.3 31.8 5.3 10.8 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 2.1 16.4 17.0 193.3 84.0 56.6 1.9 4.3 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.0 12.8 16.7 170.7 81.1 57.5 3.1 5.4 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 1.8 4.0 6.6 57.6 45.0 30.9 2.4 4.8 8.2 29 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 5.7 12.4 12.7 81.1 54.7 39.7 6.9 11.1 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 4.6 10.3 7.5 65.7 50.6 31.2 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.8 14.1 14.3 91.7 59.4 45.8 6.3 10.8 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.8 14.4 9.9 91.7 61.1 43.3 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 3.8 8.0 6.9 59.8 47.9 32.8 5.0 8.5 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 4.8 12.7 8.6 73.2 54.1 32.4 6.3 11.3 18.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 4.6 13.2 10.9 85.8 57.6 36.8 5.7 10.5 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.8 13.7 12.8 105.4 65.7 46.2 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.9 8.6 9.0 108.6 67.2 50.3 2.9 5.2 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 4.0 11.5 10.4 84.0 58.1 40.6 4.2 8.6 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.1 20.0 18.5 180.8 82.5 58.1 2.8 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 7.5 15.5 12.5 79.6 53.7 40.0 8.6 14.1 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 4.4 9.4 7.1 61.3 48.9 30.7 5.5 9.6 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------