***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.07.2017.-23.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.0 10.5 8.4 87.0 61.2 38.9 3.0 6.8 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 2.7 10.5 9.4 107.4 67.3 38.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.7 9.6 8.7 91.0 62.4 38.3 3.0 6.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.2 17.0 9.8 113.2 69.6 36.0 3.6 8.0 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.5 10.0 7.9 94.8 64.0 35.7 2.5 5.7 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.4 10.8 9.5 97.0 64.2 36.7 2.5 5.9 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.5 10.0 9.2 102.7 65.9 36.2 2.6 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.2 8.9 6.0 68.4 53.7 35.1 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 2.0 6.5 7.4 79.3 59.2 35.5 2.0 4.5 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.4 8.2 7.4 74.2 56.6 37.2 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.4 8.2 5.9 84.0 60.2 34.5 2.4 5.5 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 2.7 7.6 4.9 68.9 54.5 34.1 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.4 5.7 6.2 78.2 58.8 30.7 1.5 3.8 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.3 10.0 8.9 68.0 54.2 34.8 3.9 8.5 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.4 11.2 8.5 115.8 70.5 39.7 2.3 5.2 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 1.7 6.4 6.4 86.3 61.3 32.1 1.9 4.2 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.9 8.9 9.9 108.4 67.8 38.0 3.1 5.4 8.4 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 2.9 7.5 8.3 69.1 54.1 36.7 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.0 11.6 9.0 99.8 65.0 37.5 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 2.6 7.0 8.0 72.5 54.4 35.9 2.9 6.1 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 2.1 7.8 8.0 86.2 61.7 36.9 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.4 9.4 9.8 102.4 65.8 38.5 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.5 7.8 8.0 81.4 59.1 35.8 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 3.0 8.8 8.7 75.8 57.0 37.2 3.2 6.8 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.7 10.6 9.5 94.6 64.0 39.1 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.8 7.4 5.8 87.0 61.8 36.8 1.8 4.5 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.9 14.4 9.2 89.4 62.1 39.4 3.6 9.0 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.5 12.4 8.7 109.4 68.8 36.4 2.7 6.0 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.7 9.3 9.1 72.5 54.7 38.4 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.2 11.8 9.4 107.6 67.3 39.5 3.4 6.7 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------