***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.06.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.07.2017.-30.07.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 3.2 5.0 3.6 42.7 40.7 30.0 3.0 8.1 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.9 6.9 4.9 57.5 48.5 32.5 3.3 7.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.0 6.8 4.6 56.5 47.9 33.0 2.9 7.5 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 3.5 8.0 4.2 60.5 50.0 33.8 3.2 8.0 15.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 2.7 7.7 4.5 67.2 54.0 36.1 2.9 6.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.0 7.3 5.0 57.1 49.8 32.6 3.3 7.3 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 3.7 6.2 3.9 44.8 42.1 30.2 4.2 8.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.1 16.9 7.1 80.0 58.8 39.6 6.0 12.4 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 2.2 7.4 4.9 64.3 52.6 33.7 2.6 6.5 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.1 11.8 7.0 72.4 56.0 37.4 3.8 9.1 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.0 7.8 4.5 68.8 54.5 37.4 2.9 6.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.3 11.3 5.3 80.2 58.9 40.2 3.0 7.6 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.9 7.5 4.5 70.0 54.9 33.6 3.1 6.3 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.8 14.9 8.4 74.8 56.9 35.8 4.9 11.1 21.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 2.2 5.2 3.4 57.5 49.5 31.9 2.4 5.4 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.7 6.3 4.2 68.4 54.4 35.2 2.8 5.4 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 5.2 12.6 5.4 60.7 49.3 33.3 6.5 12.8 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.0 15.5 9.2 80.6 59.2 37.9 4.3 10.5 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 3.6 10.0 5.5 66.1 52.5 33.5 3.8 8.9 17.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 4.9 14.3 10.7 91.7 62.6 40.1 5.0 9.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.0 7.8 4.4 59.0 50.6 33.3 3.3 7.5 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 4.9 14.9 7.1 76.9 56.7 36.0 6.1 11.9 20.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.7 11.8 6.4 76.5 57.0 34.3 3.8 8.8 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.7 7.6 75.0 57.3 37.6 3.4 8.6 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.7 6.8 4.2 51.1 45.5 33.0 3.8 8.2 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.9 10.3 4.5 75.9 57.3 39.1 3.9 8.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.3 5.0 3.8 42.3 40.8 29.9 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.8 9.0 4.0 61.0 51.2 33.2 4.0 8.6 15.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.9 21.3 10.1 83.8 60.1 39.9 7.6 15.1 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 4.0 7.3 4.5 53.1 45.9 31.6 4.2 8.6 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------